ACCORDING to some reports, 2023 has seen a spike in the number of conflicts around the world and it shows.
This year has been an eye-opener for a lot of ordinary people. It wasn’t for those of us who are fans of current events. We’ve seen this coming for a while. But for many apolitical people, it was.
China’s moves in the West Philippine Sea, as well as the surprise attack of Hamas on Israel, have inspired some people to learn about international politics, even in a limited way.
But aside from information, this has also changed the national sentiment. Maybe it’s just me, but I noticed more people have begun speaking more about things that I usually write about on this column, and with them, I sense unease.
Maybe it’s just concern that conflict could erupt at any moment, but I would argue that this collective anxiety is more than just about foreign threats. It’s also the recognition that we live in an uncertain world with an uncertain future.
For a long time, a lot of people thought that we live in a world of laws, contracts and predictability; that when someone does something bad, the international community will take care of it somehow. Year 2023 has dented that notion.
Although the world is still operating in business as usual, there is the feeling that it could all change tomorrow. Maybe, Russia will escalate in Ukraine. Maybe a larger regional war will break out in the Middle East. Maybe the People’s Republic of (PRC) China will start firing.
Any of these events can trigger a much wider conflict, and that’s where the anxiety comes from.
I think everyone’s anxious. One of the PRC’s generals, for example, whined that Japan was abandoning its pacifist stance when it began to arm, and that it was undermining the post-war order (Oh the irony). It’s like everyone is armed or arming, and they are just waiting for the fighting to begin.
But the thing is, this has always been the case. International politics operates on the law of the jungle – realpolitik. America’s Unipolar moment concealed that, but it couldn’t last forever, and we’re back to the historical norm: Politics based on power. Politics based on self-interest. Politics based on the Law of Nature. Some people may not like that, but it’s reality.
Happy 2024./PN
