DRY spells and drought may affect several provinces by yearend due to the looming El Niño, according to the state weather bureau Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).
“PAGASA said 36 provinces may experience dry spells by the end of December while two provinces may see “meteorological drought,” PAGASA Assistant Weather Services Chief Ana Solis said in a Tugon Kabuhayan forum.
Dry spells and droughts vary in terms of the reduced amount of rainfall and the duration, PAGASA said.
“‘Pag sinabing dry spell, at least dalawang buwan na sobrang 60 percent ang reduction sa tubig-ulan or tatlong buwan na sunod-sunod na may reduction ng 41 to 60 percent sa tubig-ulan,” Solis said.
“‘Pag sinabing meteorological drought, tatlong buwan na sunod-sunod na more than 60 percent ang reduction sa tubig-ulan o limang buwan na sunod-sunod na may reduction na around 21 to 60 percent reduction sa tubig-ulan,” she added.
But Solis said the impact of El Niño would vary depending on each region’s climate type. Some areas in Luzon may experience reduction in rainfall as early as October.
“‘Pag sinabing El Niño, it doesn’t always mean drought. It just gives you the possibility na mas mataas ang posibilidad ng potential ng reduction ng ulan ang posibleng mauwi sa dry spell o drought,” Solis explained.
Impact on rice supply
Federation of Free Farmers Cooperatives, Inc. national manager Raul Montemayor said separate weather forecasts for farmers could be of help for mitigation planning.
Based on historical data, Montemayor said there was a 24 percent drop in palay production when El Niño hit the country in 1997 to 1998.
“Maganda sana i-correlate ito doon sa sinasabi ng taga-PAGASA. If you are predicting such percentage of intensity of El Niño, ganoon din ba noong 1997, 1998? Ganoon din ba katindi ‘yong El Niño na parating? Are we looking again at a 24% drop?” he said.
Montemayor echoed the Department of Agriculture’s earlier projection that some palay-producing areas might benefit from the El Niño, particularly when the onset of dry episodes happen as expected during the main harvest season.
But problems with rice supply may be felt next year with the limited water supply in reservoirs this year, he said.
He said the dry season crop for the first semester of 2024 may be affected. “Pagdating ng lean months next year there will be no stocks,” Montemayor added.
A decline in local rice production will also translate to higher prices, according to Montemayor, especially since the El Niño event could potentially impact other rice-producing countries as well.
Rice Watch Action Network Executive Director Hazel Tanchuling said mitigation plans should be in place should the El Niño effect would have prolonged impact. (ABS-CBN News)
