IN AN article written for the Straits Times, former Singaporean permanent foreign affairs secretary Bilahari Kausikan wrote:
“Asean centrality nevertheless preserves some autonomy in the midst of great power competition by promoting an omni-directional South-east Asian balance of major powers. This gives Asean some degree of voice and agency. The degree of ‘centrality’ varies from issue to issue and ebbs and flows over time. This is not ideal, but the ideal is found only in heaven.”
This passage was referring to one of three ideas that affected the geopolitical dynamic in the South China Sea. Based on my reading of the article, Kausikan’s contention is that ASEAN allows its members states to exert a certain degree of power and influence over regional issues that involve China and the United States.
This is a pleasant pronouncement from a veteran diplomat, because it highlights the importance of ASEAN, even in relation to issues where it has little to leverage or control (i.e. the South China Sea). As Kausikan said, the organization can promote an “omni-directional South-east Asian balance of major powers,” or to put it another way, play one player off against the other, so as to secure the best possible results for itself. So even though ASEAN and its various member states will never be as powerful as the United States and China in the foreseeable future, the organization is not completely useless as some Filipinos may think.
In my experience, Filipinos who are aware of the Chinese island bases in the South China Sea, believe that we have two options: Cozy up to China or Cozy up to the US. ASEAN – not so much.
Yes, ASEAN does not have the power to directly stand up to either China or the United States, but the organization (and by extension the Philippines) can still pursue its own interests by leveraging the collective bargaining power of its member states to influence certain issues, especially those which involve either China or the US.
So going forward, it would be nice if the Duterte administration would tone down his friendliness with China and try to give a few more nods to our fellow ASEAN member states or better yet, express his support for the organization itself, particularly in relation to the PRC. Such moves will not cost a lot of political capital, and may even lead to positive dividends in the future. After all, they’re our neighbors./PN
