WAS THERE really a survey conducted between March 23 and 28 this year to showcase the probable front runners in the May 2019 senatorial election? Yes, if we swallow hook, line and sinker the survey result as published in the print and echoed on the air the other day.
No, if we fathom the pecuniary motive of pollster Pulse Asia and its observation that 57 percent of Filipinos have already expressed preference for 12 senatorial candidates for the May 2019 elections. As the news report was saying, Pulse Asia had conducted a “non-commissioned survey” – meaning unpaid – of 1,200 face-to-face respondents.
Its 12 survey front-runners (mostly re-electionist and former senators) are Grace Poe, Cynthia Villar, Pia Cayetano, Nancy Binay, Edgardo Angara, Davao City mayor Sara Duterte Carpio, Aquilino Martin Pimentel III, Serge Osmeña, Erwin Tulfo, Lito Lapid, Ronald Dela Rosa, and Jinggoy Estrada.
Close behind kuno were Presidential Spokesperson Harry Roque Jr., Special Assistant to the President Christopher “Bong” Go, and Presidential Communications Operations Office Assistant Secretary Mocha Uson. All of them are allies of President Rodrigo Duterte.
It baffles the inquisitive mind why a face-to-face interview with 1,200 respondents had to be done in the last week of March this year, or one year and two months ahead of the next mid-term elections in May 2019. What for? There are no senatorial candidates yet, since all senatorial wannabes would have to wait for October this year to file their certificates of candidacy.
We don’t have the flimsiest clue on who and where these 1,200 faceless people are. Obviously, Pulse Asia was firing its first salvo aimed at influencing voters’ preferences. Expect the other outfit, Social Weather Stations (SWS), to come up with similar or near-similar survey frontrunners.
Talking of SWS, last Tuesday (July 10) it came up with its June 2018 net satisfaction rating of President Duterte, supposedly “an all-time low of +45” which is still categorized as “good”. SWS tried to be credible with an explanation that 65 percent of Filipinos are still satisfied with despite having called God “stupid.”
Whether true or false, it propagates the idea that whoever the President endorses would likely win. It would then look natural for his endorsed senatorial candidates to top the election surveys.
Political forecasts sway individuals into choosing the announced “winners” lest their votes be “wasted”. They are therefore prone to media-assisted manipulation. What if the survey results are kept locked in the vaults of paying clients? Would the election results prove them correct as well?
Sad to say, candidates pay for surveys in the hope of being catapulted to the top. Down memory lane I remember that a few weeks before the May 2013 senatorial election, then congressman Tobby Tiangco hollered over the “high cost” that Pulse Asia was charging the United Nationalist Alliance (UNA), P1.9 million per survey of the senatorial race. It paid off, nevertheless, with first-time senatorial candidate Nancy Binay placing 4th in the final Pulse Asia survey and 5th among the 12 elected senators.
It is interesting to note, however, that in the same 2013 senatorial derby, Loren Legarda was the consistent survey leader while another newcomer, Grace Poe, averaged 10th. But Poe surged ahead, besting Loren Legarda for the No. 1 spot. It was a learning experience for SWS and Pulse Asia.
No wonder, while then Vice President Jejomar Binay was initially leading in the surveys for the 2016 presidential election, followed by Grace Poe, Duterte and Mar Roxas, they had to literally play it by ear by awarding the last-survey lead to Duterte, who was drawing the heaviest applause in campaign rallies.
The actual election returns, however, relegated Binay to 4th place. Roxas jumped to 2nd, Poe slipped to 3rd and Miriam Defensor-Santiago placed last as forecast. (hvego31@gmail.com/PN)
