PUBLICLY available statistics quote COVID-19 fatalities in absolute terms. Per capita deaths provide a somewhat different perspective.
The United States has suffered the most casualties but when we take its large population into account it is relatively safer than the most seriously stricken western European countries of UK, Italy, Spain. Fortunately, the Philippines, in comparison, is benign.
Rounded data as of May 2020 is:
| Population (million) | Deaths | Deaths per 100 million population | |
| US | 330 | 75,000 | 23,000 |
| UK+Italy+Spain | 160 | 90,000 | 56,000 |
| Philippines | 100 | 700 | 700 |
We know very little about the virus. I wonder, however, if hot countries are relatively safer than colder ones.
In 1918, there was an influenza pandemic. Within many countries there was a small peak in the summer but a second, more serious, wave took place in the winter. This may have been exacerbated by huge troop movements that took place following the end of World War I (November 1918).
Will this winter see a disastrous spike in fatalities?
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The virus has, of course, had a huge impact on the budget. In late 2019 a budget amounting to an expenditure of P4.1 trillion was formulated. This assumed (a reasonable assumption at the time) that we would have a growth rate of around six percent. This corresponded to a steady implementation of the ‘build build build’ program.
Now, of course, our expenditure has changed dramatically. We cannot have growth; in fact we shall have contraction. Amelioration is a major issue. We should avoid, as far as possible, a piecemeal situation in which funds are made available only where there is dire need.
There are already sad stories where barangay officials, unused to authority, are in hot water under RA 3019, the Graft and Corrupt Practices Act, for granting funds to unqualified beneficiaries of the Special Amelioration Program (SAP).
It is not clear, by reallocating past priorities to urgently required new priorities, if we can maintain expenditure within the existing P4.1 trillion. In any case income from the various tax sources will be substantially less than predicted when the budget was prepared.
We shall need to borrow from the Asian Development Bank as well as the World Bank, and the International Monetary Fund.
Fortunately, we are in fairly good shape where our debt to gross domestic product (GDP) ratio is concerned. It was, at the end of last year, approximately 40 percent. This will rise but hopefully by not too much. In 2009 our debt to GDP ratio was 74.5 percent. We managed then and I believe we can manage now.
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The Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) has a scheme whereby one centavo per kilowatt hour of electricity generated by producers should be allocated as specified by the ERC. In Iloilo, as a result of the ERC directive, the city has recently received P15.32 million from Global Business Power (GBP) which through its subsidiaries provided electricity to PECO.
P15.32 million is 1.532 billion centavos. This means that PECO bought 1.532 billion kilowatt hours from GBP between June 2017 and Dec 2019. This cost PECO’s consumers around P16 billion.
MORE Power has said that it would endeavor to provide electricity more efficiently and cheaply than PECO.
Is it possible for MORE Power to renegotiate with GBP?
Food for thought!/PN
