MANY COUNTRIES, after a period of lockdown, are looking to ways of easing the constraints imposed on the populace without suffering a ‘spike’ in recorded fatalities. Easier said than done.
The criteria used for decision-making are never explicit. I believe this is avoid discussing the inconvenient truth which is that by relaxing the rules of, for example, movement of people, there will be more corona-related deaths than if the rules remained stringent. There are those who support a minimum fatality regime which means we should be extremely conservative about having more freedom of movement.
The Philippines is implementing a more measured and careful program than many other countries.
An enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) regime was imposed initially which is followed, successively, by a modified ECQ, then a general community quarantine (GCQ), a modified GCQ, and, finally, a “new normal”. It is interesting to speculate whether the new normal, whenever implemented, will result in permanent, or nearly permanent, differences from the “normal” associated with pre-COVID 19 days.
This carefully calibrated policy which is being implemented here is very much welcomed. It is a policy which attempts to minimize casualties.
In contrast, the United States is operating a fragmented and piecemeal policy which is resulting in an enormous number of deaths. At the time of writing the US has approximately 90,000 deaths which will rise to around 150,000 when the November presidential election is due. In contrast, the Philippines has approximately only one percent of these horrific numbers.
The US has a federal system which has not been helpful in fighting COVID. There is finger-pointing between president Trump and several governors of Democratic (as opposed to Republic) States and in many cases, such as the provision of necessary protective equipment in hospitals, the ball has been dropped.
The UK Prime Minister, who seemingly only has authority over England (Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland are making their own decisions), attempted, in a speech to the nation, ten days ago, to adopt a “top-down” approach. “You can all go back to work tomorrow,” he said. This turned out to be impractical since the work journey for many is long and it would be impossible to maintain social distancing on public transport. The bottom-up approach, which we practice here, seems to be the more feasible option.
First-world countries see a starker trade-off between people’s safety and the economy than developing countries, including the Philippines. We worry less about the economy than the US.
Here, we need to see more efficient amelioration implementation than we have so far. Last week’s regrettable scenes in Quezon City involving a complete disregard for social distancing should not be repeated.
This week should see progress in the provision of detailed implementation plans by banks in response to Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) directives.
I hope BSP shows the leadership to persuade banks to go beyond narrow profit maximization criteria when developing policy.
Under current conditions, it needs to./PN
