LET ME preface this article by saying that I’m not an expert on the COVID virus nor am I an expert on all the COVID-related stats released up to this point. This particular article is more an exercise of throwing out ideas for people to consider.
I’ve looked at a few studies on COVID and from what I’ve read, its fatality rate is akin to the flu.
Now, these studies use developed nations for data, so they may not be compatible with the Philippines but even so, it’s worth thinking about.
Assuming that this is the case, then we should consider herd immunity as a possible solution to the COVID epidemic.
Herd immunity takes effect when 80 percent of a particular population becomes immune to a virus, which basically means that four out of five people who contract the disease won’t get sick, and more importantly, they won’t spread it.
Experts believe that, depending on a particular virus, it usually takes around 50 percent to 90 percent of a population becoming immune to achieve herd immunity. Measles, mumps, polio, and chickenpox are examples of diseases which we have controlled, thanks to herd immunity.
Of course, the thing about herd immunity is that you let the virus spread, which of course will infect people and will very likely increase its fatality rate. This means removing masks and shields and let things fall where they may.
We could still forbid persons who are particularly vulnerable from still moving out, such as the elderly, the obese for example. But otherwise, the lockdown will end.
It sounds counter-intuitive and even cold-hearted but it’s worth considering IF a COVID vaccine doesn’t work, or when it’s delayed.
There’s also the issue of the economy to consider. If people start starving because of poverty, the lockdown could very become as dangerous as the disease itself. And if that were the case, then maybe herd immunity is our best solution for dealing with this disease./PN
