BOB DYLAN’S 1964 song is always relevant. But rarely more so than at present.
Former US President Donald Trump has turned out to be a one-term leader. But his continued popularity has exposed deep divisions in American life.
Former president George W. Bush spoke frequently about “the last vestiges of racism” but unfortunately recent events have shown that white supremacists have never disappeared and all they needed was Trump to encourage their obnoxiousness.
World order has been substantially rattled since 2017 and it is unclear the extent to which greater stability will be achieved.
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Sino-US relations will improve on some fronts. Climate change, for example. Nevertheless, although there should be agreement that the problem needs urgent responses, there will be disagreement about what should be done and by whom. The US still has a much larger per capita carbon footprint than China and a populace which is reluctant to support the necessary changes.
Trade relations between the US and China are at a low ebb. There should be improvements, however. Trump imposed stiff trade barriers which could be reduced by adroit negotiations.
I would like to see more clarity in the telecommunications sector. A group of five nations, specifically US, Canada, UK, Australia, New Zealand believe that Huawei’s products enable China to spy on these countries. But I am not convinced. The charges filed by the US against Huawei’s CFO Meng Wangzhou seem weak. These revolve around Huawei’s alleged untruthfulness to HSBC about a loan which could be construed as being illegal (in the US) as it has been suggested that involves sanctions-busting in relation to Iran.
Meng who has been effectively under house arrest in her Vancouver mansions for over two years. The US want her to be extradited to face charges there but it seems increasingly probable that the Canadian authorities are unwilling to implement any deportation order.
I mention Meng’s case because I believe that a satisfactory outcome can be reached which would improve Sino-US relations.
What about the Philippines?
President Duterte’s request for Filipinos to use the 8888 telephone number to provide views as to whether the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) with the US should be abrogated or not is welcome. This agreement was signed by President Estrada in 1999 after receiving Senate approval (18 votes to 5). I hope the VFA will be continued, although the pandemic prevents full implementation.
The question of the relationship between the Philippines and China is not so clear.
Many believe that Duterte under-negotiated with China about events in the West China Sea, particularly after the Hague-based International Court of Arbitration found in favor of the Philippine case./PN
