OVER the years, Southeast Asian scholars have noted the significant contribution of China towards the region facilitating the economic growth of Southeast Asian states. This is noticeable not only by scholars but by governments and citizens of Southeast Asia alike.
According to Connelly (2017), this “strong economic growth powered by the Chinese economy” has caused unease on the part of Southeast Asian leaders because of its possible repercussion: “Dependence on political alignment with Beijing”, and to counter this, Connelly (2017) said “Southeast Asian governments have sought to multi-lateralize Beijing’s economic engagement with the region.”
Meanwhile, the US has been perceived in a slightly negative light by governments comprising the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).
China considers ASEAN a strategic partner. “We want to work with ASEAN to write a new chapter for win-win cooperation”, said Premier Li at the launch of the 15th anniversary of the ASEAN-China Strategic Partnership (ASEAN Secretariat News, 2018).
In the same event, Li highlighted how China values ASEAN as part of its “country neighborhood diplomacy” recognizing the latter’s efforts in the promotion of “peace, stability, integration, and development in the region.”
Li likewise emphasized that should there be differences in ASEAN-China relations, “prudence and proper management of such matters” will be the first approach to preserve the “greater interest of the relations.”
In the Report, Forging Closer ASEAN-China Economic Relations in the Twenty-First Century dated October 2001, it was noted that China was emerging as a global economic force and alongside this emergence was the growing interdependence between ASEAN and China. Factors such as “dynamism of their economies, the liberalization of their trade regimes, and the changes in their trade structure” boosted the dramatic growth in ASEAN-China economic relations.
In March 2020, the Chinese Global Times reported that ASEAN has become China’s largest trading partner, overtaking the European Union (Kaneti, 2020). It will be noted that over the past couple of years, the economies of ASEAN Member States (AMS) have consistently benefited from the ongoing US-China trade war with visible relocation of many foreign companies from China to the region. However, this upside, according to regional observers, is juxtaposed with a downside. Kaneti (2020) argues whether in the context of US-China rivalry, China’s promotion of “global interdependence is only as good as the Southeast Asian countries’ willingness to play a part.”
Moving forward, given the harsh criticism thrown at China because of the COVID-19 pandemic, it is also possible that “China needs ASEAN not only as an economic partner, but also as China’s champion to push collaborative work to build a community with shared future” (Kaneti, 2020).
Meanwhile, many Southeast Asian leaders perceived the US as unreliable and consequently, although reluctantly, embraced China (Kurlantzick, 2020). Kurlantzick asserts that while the US makes pronouncements, they do not follow through exemplified by the 2019 ASEAN-US Summit in Bangkok where the US sent a low-level delegation after announcing with fanfare that the Indo-Pacific region was a top priority.
A 2020 survey facilitated by ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, a Singapore-based think tank, revealed that Southeast Asians trust China less than the US or Japan, however, the same survey likewise disclosed that if forced to choose, 70% of Southeast Asians would align with Beijing rather than Washington.
In its defense, the US will most probably brandish the conduct of freedom of navigation exercises in the South China Sea (SCS) to underscore their commitment to the region. They will emphasize the Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) vision that embraces, among others, the promotion of fair and reciprocal trade, support of regional institutions including ASEAN, protection of sovereignty, and promotion of good governance (Kurlantzick, 2020).
In the Southeast Asian region, Singapore and Vietnam have welcomed the FOIP strategy out of exasperation over China’s activities and militarization of the SCS, yet other mainland AMS have no stake over SCS (Kurlantzick, 2020). In fact, our very own Philippines (PH), a US treaty ally, has ingratiated herself with China.
In sum, China considers Southeast Asia an important region because of geography – the Malacca Strait – providing China with the shortest maritime access to Europe, Africa, and the Middle East with about 80% of China’s total energy supply passing through the strait (Anwar, 2019).
For the US, as first espoused by former President Donald Trump at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit in November 2017, the realization of the FOIP which is anchored on freedom and a rules-based order together with Australia, India, and Japan (Anwar, 2019). (To be continued)
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Writer can be reached at belindabelsales@gmail.com. Twitter @ShilohRuthie./PN
