SO THE Israelis and the Palestinians are at it again. I wanted to write about this, but I doubt the conflict will escalate to World War levels.
Still, given what we’ve seen so far, a major Middle Eastern conflict centered around the Holy Land is not out of the question. Wait and see.
Instead, I’d like to examine what would happen in the Middle East if the US pulls out completely from the region.
If that were to happen, that part of the world will most likely descend into chaos, and we can kiss our oil-reliant economy goodbye.
The US does not need to be in the Middle East. It has plenty oil of its own along with the necessary infrastructure to process it. Its only problems are the politics, but any sufficiently serious crisis will likely change that.
A Middle Eastern regional conflict is more harmful to nations with no oil or energy, particularly developing countries, and more specifically China.
If the US pulls out of the Middle East, the PRC is the only one who can take up the burden. That means taking on America’s military role, spend trillions of dollar, sacrifice military units to defend key infrastructure and most importantly, diplomatically manage the various factions there, such as say, the Israelis and the Palestinians.
Will China be able to handle that role? Some people think so. I don’t. I believe a Chinese presence in the Middle East will be a nightmare for the PRC.
Of course, China could always try and take its oil from other sources (like Venezuela for example), but I doubt it would be that easy or as efficient. And that is why, in the end, American presence and influence in the Middle East is ultimately about sustaining the global order, and not necessarily American interests.
If the US says goodbye to the Middle East, someone will have to take the burden and I doubt anyone actually wants it./PN
