PERSONALLY, I don’t think there will be a Russian invasion of Ukraine. I think most of it is just posturing for the sake of negotiations.
I think Vladimir Putin knows that a Russian occupation in Ukraine will weaken his power, mobilize the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and benefit China, none of which are good for Russia.
However, if Russia does invade Ukraine, it would be because of two reasons: Time and Security.
First, let’s discuss security. For a long time, Ukraine has sought NATO membership. If that happens, the country’s Western border will be vulnerable, forcing the Russian Federation to potentially bankrupt itself just to guard its western border.
Ukraine has always been a buffer zone to Russia, and if that zone were to fall under NATO, it would render the latter’s geostrategic situation in very dire straits.
Ukraine is mostly open land, allowing for easy offensives regardless of which direction they’re headed, and Russia doesn’t want that land to fall under NATO interests.
The other reason why Russia seems to be planning to invade Ukraine is because the latter is arming itself. Not only has it received a lot of arms from NATO countries, it is also producing drones.
Given enough time, Ukraine could very well make itself prohibitively difficult to invade, regardless of whether or not it joins NATO.
So from a Russian standpoint, it just makes sense for them to invade soon. The longer they wait, the fewer options they will have, especially since many of Russia’s allies are located in Central Asia.
So assuming Russia does invade Ukraine, and succeed in its objectives, they will not likely occupy the latter. They wouldn’t want to deal with the resulting insurgency, especially if that same insurgency is matched by economic woes at home.
Rather, I believe Putin will force a political solution, preventing Ukraine from joining NATO or, in a best case scenario, compel it to join the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization./PN
