BY JED JALECO DEL ROSARIO
THE Russia-Ukraine war is about to end, and the reason is that Ukraine no longer has the forces to continue fighting.
Even if Russia’s envelopment of Bakhmut, from Soledar to the North and Toretsk from the south, were to fail, Ukraine will not be able to continue simply because they have lost tens of thousands of soldiers, while Russia has around 300,000 reserves about to enter the theater.
Even the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) assistance is not enough, partly because it has exhausted a large part of its own munition reserves. The only way things could change is if NATO decides to intervene, and I just don’t see that happening.
So the war will end soon. The big question is what will happen at the negotiation table, and it could go all kinds of ways.
The European governments may have their issues with the Russians, but a significant number of their voting base would rather have peace than endure further economic and energy costs, even if that means going against NATO.
On the other side, Russians may be angry with the West but they are unlikely to start a much larger war. They may strengthen their ties with the People’s Republic of China (PRC), and arm more, but the post-war situation is not likely to be lead to further escalation from their end.
The big question is how the US would react. Since the start of the war, the Americans have called for intervention, and they have been the primary force behind the continuation of the conflict. They are not likely to put boots on the ground (though that isn’t out of the realm of possibility), but I wouldn’t put it past the America’s military industrial complex to escalate the situation with Russia, even once a ceasefire has been reached.
They will likely put more weapons into Eastern Europe as well as try to start some kind of color revolution, which of course will only lead to more conflict. This is a hypothetical scenario at this point, but one thing I am certain of: the tensions with Russia and NATO will not end at the conclusion of the Ukrainian-Russian war./PN
