IF WAR were to ever break out between the United States of America and the People’s Republic of China, the latter will need to keep the trade lanes open for their energy needs.
The US knows this, which is why their strategy involves cutting off China’s energy imports and throttling their ability to wage war.
If war were to happen, American subs and naval vessels, along with Japanese, Australian, Filipino ships will patrol the sea lanes to interdict any cargo ships carrying oil to China.
The Chinese know this, and they will try to overcome the blockade by shipping oil from Russia and Iran. The problem with this strategy is that transporting items over land is a lot more expensive, time-consuming and difficult than carrying it over water.
Further, should war break out in Asia, the Russians might take advantage of the situation by pumping up the price, putting the Chinese in an even more difficult situation.
This is why China has set up a plan B: Pakistan and Myanmar
Both countries can be used as alternative drop-offs for oil containers. The Chinese plan is for the oil tankers to ship the oil from the Middle East and bring it to the Gwadar port in Pakistan. From there, they will send it via pipeline to China. Same with Myanmar.
This partly solves the US plan at a naval blockade. Although this reduces the travel time, it doesn’t negate the danger of sea travel.
There is also the fact that Pakistan’s economy is in turmoil and Myanmar is in the midst of a civil war, which is to say they are both unstable. In a war time scenario, China’s oil pipelines will be prime targets by deniable assets.
Finally, it’s worth mentioning that India, which neighbor both Myanmar and Pakistan have its own beef with China and they may help the US even without declaring war.
In this sense, any war that involves China will extend beyond the Southeast and East Asian regions./PN
