NOT TOO LONG ago, Chinese diplomats presented a study that said that Indonesians, Malaysians and presumably other Southeast Asian nations are more likely to stand with China than the United States.
They presented this study to a group of Filipinos, implying that the Chinese have their own allies and that should war break out, the Philippines will be, presumably, fighting other ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) member states.
The problem with this is that it was only one poll and fails to take into consideration the long history of Chinese relations with Southeast Asia. Even if the many Southeast Asian countries are more positive with the People’s Republic of China (PRC), both have difficult histories.
Indonesia, for example, has its own territorial disputes with the PRC. There is also the Sino-Vietnam war in 1979, which also involved Cambodia.
There is the ongoing situation in Myanmar and China’s complicated support for the military junta that rules the country there. There are other examples, but you should get the idea.
Southeast Asia has a complicated relationship with the PRC, one that cannot be stated on just one poll. All it reported were opinions from ASEAN countries, and such opinions can be quite fickle.
Perhaps it’s true that many Southeast Asians would prefer China over the US in 2024. That does not necessarily mean they like the Chinese either. It’s more likely that they just distrust one side a little less than the other, or would more likely want both to stay away from their backyard.
That said, I think that should war break out in Asia, most ASEAN countries will just want to stay out of it, regardless of what they think of China or the US.
Many would like ASEAN to present a more coordinated, more independent front, including myself, but the truth is that we are just too fragmented.
Consider this. Would you want the Philippines to help Indonesia, Cambodia or Vietnam if they suddenly faced threats from China, even at the cost of war?
Now, think about your answer and flip the question in reverse.
That is the situation regardless of what you think about either China or the US, and this is why that study Chinese diplomats raised ultimately does not matter./PN
