THE WAR in Ukraine is basically over. The only reason it’s still happening is because of the material support of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
Russia had performed poorly in the war and its progress has been slow, but it is eventually going to win, assuming nothing changes.
The only way that can change is if NATO puts boots on the ground in Ukraine, and I just can’t see that happening in the immediate future. For Western leaders, the only thing left to consider is how to get out.
Assuming the Ukrainian war ends, there are fears that Russia will launch another attack; this time at the Baltic countries, specifically Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia.
Of course, if Russia were to do that, it will be an entirely different situation from the war in Ukraine, and one that could spell World War III, particularly if the Russians coordinate with China’s Xi Jin Ping in attacking Taiwan.
I personally don’t think this will happen. I think Putin wants to pause and lick his wounds, so to speak. But I’ve been wrong with Russia before and so I’m willing to entertain the possibility of a Russian attack on Eastern Europe.
If Russia chooses to do this, they are not likely to do it on their own. So an attack on Eastern Europe will likely coincide with a China attack on Taiwan and/or a Middle East debacle.
The attack on Eastern Europe will involve Poland, which has the largest army in Europe and is rapidly growing. It will involve the other Baltic states and will require more naval assets. Naturally, it will involve more drones too, only now, there will be more of it, and anti-drone equipment.
On the diplomatic front, assuming the world leaders can somehow keep the conflict local, it will also test NATO and could very well change Europe from a region dedicated to humanitarianism and liberalism to something more akin to one before the two World Wars.
It’s already happening with the rise of right wing parties (and their suppression by mainstream bureaucrats). A war in the Baltics or Eastern Europe will only accelerate that./PN
