SO APPARENTLY, the world population is shrinking. It was going to happen sooner or later. It’s only that it is happening faster than analysts expected. An article from Reuters had this to say:
“The world is at a startling demographic milestone,” the outlet reported in a May 13 feature piece. “Sometime soon, the global fertility rate will drop below the point needed to keep population constant. It may have already happened.”
Now, there’s some dispute over what the fertility replacement rate is. Some reports I read say that the replacement rate is 2.5. Others say it’s either 2.2 or 2.1. Whatever the case may be, one thing is certain: The global fertility rate is dropping, fast. It began in the developed world and now the rest is rapidly catching up, with a few exceptions.
Now, a lot of people are wringing their hands at the thought that the global population is shrinking. It would mean less economic activity, they say. It will mean less growth. Line in graph is going down and that is bad. Very bad.
However, there are some who would argue that a shrinking or even stagnating global population is not necessarily a bad thing. Japan has had years of shrinking demographics and stagnating economic activity and it looks fine. It has economic woes and problems but these are not insurmountable. Likewise, Europe also has shrinking demographics and it would be fine, if it didn’t bring in overwhelming amounts of immigrants.
The foreseeable future will likely look less crowded than it is today, which is good I think. Fewer people is not necessarily a bad thing. Fewer people means more space, which means more freedom. I also think it will be less integrated/globalized, and yes less peace, but Western-led globalization has always been a fluke of history. There will also be, I assume, less pollution and less of the problems seen in recent past. It will be a different world with different opportunities and problems, and personally, I welcome it./PN
