BY JED JALECO DEL ROSARIO
WHEN I first wrote this article, I thought Syria’s Bashar Al Assad would pull through, but as things have turned out, I had to rewrite the article from scratch.
The rebels’ attack was so swift, so uncontested, that it seemed almost impossible to believe, and now, Syria has fallen, and with it, another bastion of secular Baathist rule in the Middle East.
In retrospect, maybe this was to be expected. Assad’s rule was propped up by Russia and Iran. With these countries embroiled in other wars, Russia in Ukraine and Iran in Palestine (via proxies), Assad’s supporters had less to offer, but even then, many people believed that Assad’s own forces could quickly smash any rebellion.
They, including myself, were wrong, and now, Assad has fled.
But just because Assad is gone doesn’t mean there will be peace in Syria. Abu Mohammed al Jolani, the face of the rebellion, does not control all of Syria.
Other factions include the Kurds to the North-East, rebel factions in the South, Shia/Hezbollah aligned groups scattered in other areas and whatever’s left of Russia-aligned forces in the region.
These factions are likely to turn on each other, and informally Balkanize the country into different regions.
Outside Syria, there are also winners and losers in Assad’s fall. Russia is a loser, as is Iran, though how much they have lost only time will tell.
Turkey, Israel and the United States are winners, if for no other reason than they have been trying to get rid of Assad for a long time.
And let us not forget the Syrians themselves.
With Assad gone, it’s almost certain that Syria will fall into chaos, with ISIS and Al Qaeda groups returning but under new names.
Religious minorities will likely be oppressed, despite Jolani’s promises, and Syria will cease functioning as a modern state.
If, by some miracle, the rebels come together and establish peace, the country will still be subject to the meddling of Israel, Turkey, Iran, Russia and, to some extent, the United States./PN
