THE BIG news last week was the spat at the Oval Office between US President Donald Trump and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky arguing on live camera, followed by Zelensky being escorted out of the White House.
Some on the internet say the whole thing was planned, while others believe the whole exchange was entirely organic.
Regardless of the true circumstances, one thing is certain: Zelensky has antagonized the Americans. This places, not only Ukraine, but the entire European continent in a difficult situation.
Many in Europe want to continue supporting the war, but at the same time, I don’t think it’s something they could do without the Americans.
Even with US support, Ukraine is not likely to take back its lost territories without the involvement of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), something Trump is eager to prevent, based on what he said in the video.
The problem with the Europeans is signal lag. The US has moved on from the old post-war and post-cold war paradigm through Trump and M.A.G.A. The European Union still operates on the assumption of using soft-power to influence and control global events (i.e. the media, sanctions and international lawfare).
This was the Western strategy when Russia invaded Ukraine. They sanctioned Russia, sent weapons to the Ukrainians and used international institutions to damage them. It has not worked. At best, it has had mixed results, and now, Trump wants to put an end to US involvement.
For a long time, Europe has coasted on past glories and the assumption that they have reached the end of history. That is becoming increasingly untrue.
In a world that seems dominated by more strong men, and weakened international institutions, Europe has to take note of the situation. The West have foolishly armed and uplifted their peer competitors, confident that their soft power will always win over hard power. The Russian-Ukraine War proved that was not true, and they should quickly reorient from soft power towards the hard version, before they find themselves the losing end of this new global paradigm./PN
