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BY JED DEL ROSARIO
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A la Duterte: Najib Razak’s pivot to China
MALAYSIAN Prime Minister Najib Razak’s pivot to China was one of the biggest news this week, mainly because Malaysia is now seen as the next Asian domino to fall to Chinese influence.
However, Najib’s visit to China may be due less to ideological considerations and more to do with domestic stability and geopolitical pragmatism. Unlike the Philippines’ President Rodrigo Duterte, whose ideological tendencies were already well-known prior to his presidency, Najib used to have good relations with outgoing US President Barack Obama. Both leaders even played golf together in Hawaii for an entire day back in 2014.
Najib’s cozy relationship with US changed, however, when the US Justice Department investigated his involvement in a Malaysian state investment fund charged with money laundering. Needless to say, this scandal has caused diplomatic problems for Najib and may have even harmed investments into his country.
When we consider these troubles, and the fact that Malaysia is arguably China’s most important trading partner among Asean member states, it’s easy to see some of the motivations that pushed Malaysia’s prime minister to pivot to China.
The big question in all this, however, is: “Is this the end of American presence in the South East Asia? Will other Asean countries follow the Philippines’ and Malaysia’s lead?”
Well, I would argue no, for several reasons.
First of all, there is a tendency to think of geopolitics as a zero-sum game. It isn’t. A win for China is not necessarily a loss for the US, and vice versa. For example, a stronger Philippine/Malaysia/PRC relationship may potentially push Japan, Indonesia and Vietnam (all of which have shaky relationships with the PRC) closer to the US.
Secondly, the US is not as weak as some people think, nor is China as strong as it is sometimes portrayed to be. Both countries have their strengths and weaknesses to be sure; however, political bias tends to distort how these strengths and weaknesses are perceived.
For example, despite China’s rapid growth in the past decade, it still has considerable demographic and debt-related problems, both of which will most likely result in a Japan-like “Lost Decade” scenario for the country in the years to come. As for the US, it is true to that its geopolitical power is weakening, and the country does have many domestic problems. However, American military, economic and technological power remains quite strong, and with Trump’s America First policy, it will likely correct many of its existing problems.
Finally, it is important to point out that it is in the best interests of the Asian countries to maintain friendly ties with the US and the West in general because they act as a counterweight to Chinese power. Without this counterweight, the PRC will easily dominate the South East Asian region, and may even drive the Japanese to weaponize their nuclear technology, both of which may cause problems in the region.
So what is the significance of Duterte’s and Najib’s pivots to China? They are significant in the sense that they influence perception, and right now there is the perception that America’s power on the international level will collapse any day now.
However, there is a difference between perception and reality, and right now, reality is quite unpredictable and chaotic due to various global happenings, notably the polarizing nature of the US elections, the conflict in Syria, the migrant crisis in Europe, and the incoming Trump presidency.
However, uncertainty and unpredictability does not necessarily mean collapse. Indeed, uncertainty means that any number of scenarios could happen. Thus, it is important to regard Malaysia’s and the Philippines’ pivot to China as an unpredictable gamble by their country’s leaders./PN
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