THE DEATH of Saudi journalist and government critic Jamal Khashoggi attracted a lot of attention recently. Reports say that he vanished around October 2, when he entered the Saudi Kingdom’s consulate in Istanbul to obtain documents for his marriage. As of the writing of this article, reports revealed that Khashoggi was tortured to death, which of course further added gasoline to the already gigantic diplomatic fire.
But I’m not going to touch on Khashoggi, tragic though his death may be for journalists and human rights groups. No, the interesting aspect of Khashoggi’s demise is what it could potentially trigger in the Middle East.
Khashoggi’s death did not only damage the Saudi Kingdom’s image on the world stage, it also hurt Turkish-Saudi relations. More importantly, it also damaged Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman political standing, and may have even provided certain interests the pretext they needed to move against the Saudis.
Call me cynical but I’m surprised that Khashoggi’s death got the attention that it received. Usually, diplomatically attacking the Saudi Kingdom opens up a whole can of (oil and energy) related worms, but apparently that wasn’t the case this time. The whole debacle was an embarrassment for the Saudis, but there’s more to this than the body of a dead journalist.
Consider for a moment the fact that the United States no longer needs to rely on the Middle East for its energy needs. Also, consider the possibility that Turkish President Erdogan wants to extend Turkey’s power and influence in the Middle East (perhaps at the expense of the Saudis). Also, consider the possibility that the Saudi’s intervention in Yemen has undermined its standing in the region and the wider global community as a whole. Finally and most importantly, consider the fact that Saudi Arabia is no longer the world’s largest crude oil producer (at least according to the US Energy Information Administration’s Short-Term Energy Outlook)
The net result from all these considerations is that Saudi Arabia is no longer as powerful as it once was. What this means is that they can no longer weaponize oil production to leverage their political interests, which partly explains why Khashoggi’s death is not being swept under the rug.
Will Khashoggi’s death spark new and interesting developments in the region or will it actually be swept under the rug in the long run? Probably the latter, but the fact that it got the publicity that it did is interesting enough in and of itself, because it implies changes in the Middle East.
A weakened Saudi Arabia, particularly if it loses US support, could radically alter the regional balance of power. First, it will cause Turkey to extend its power over the region, as will Iran. It may also cause Israel to reassess its alliances. Other regional powers, like Egypt, may also resurrect old ambitions, perhaps under the auspices of a new form of Pan-Arabism. How will Saudi Arabia react to these changes? Who knows, but it does indicate that something has changed in the Middle East political equation. It may not be a big change, but it’s still worth noticing./PN
