ONE OF THE most notable (and most controversial) features of President Duterte’s 2019 SONA was his stance on China.
Unlike his typically belligerent attitude towards Western countries, the President seems to hold a more deferential attitude when it comes to the People’s Republic of China (PRC). According to him, the reason he does not want to push back on Chinese ambitions in contested waters is because he doesn’t want to start a “war.”
I don’t know what the President’s advisors are telling him, but it would be extremely stupid for China to declare war on the Philippines at this point in time, particularly over relatively minor territorial disputes and fishing rights. Such an act would not only galvanize all of Asia against the PRC, it could also potentially undermine China’s economic interests and plunge China into one gigantic mess.
Further, China – for all its military might – still has to contend with Japan and potentially South Korea in a war scenario. There are also many anti-Chinese groups and interests all over Southeast Asia, many of which look at China as a threat. So if the PRC were to start a “war” with the Philippines then the assumptions of these groups will be vindicated and we will see a sharp rise in anti-Chinese sentiment all over the region, if not the world.
Japan and South Korea will arm themselves, and even North Korea may start to mobilize its own army in preparation for a regional dumpster fire. The bottom line here is, if China starts something, even a small-scale military strike against the Armed Forces of the Philippines, all of Asia will reach for their holsters, and you can be sure that the Chinese know that.
Finally, and most importantly, China has plenty of domestic problems that would get exponentially worse if it decides to declare war on little old Philippines. Just look at Hong Kong. A war will not only embolden the protesters there, it may also spark a schism in the CCP, which China definitely does not want. Add in the Tibetan question as well as various minorities in the PRC’s Western regions, and the CCP may very well find itself facing threats from every direction.
But wait. Does this mean that China is incapable of declaring war on the Philippines?
No, of course not. China can declare war on us tomorrow if it wants to, but it would be extremely stupid for them to do so, which is why it won’t happen. War is a high-risk venture, and rational actors only engage in it when the rewards justify the risks. In China’s case, a war with the Philippines in 2019 simply does not justify the risks and costs involved, which is why the President’s statements with regards to war are ultimately a little hyperbolic./PN
