AS WE LEAVE 2018 and enter 2019, it’s important to make certain predictions about where the world is headed.
Yes, most predictions are unreliable, but even so, they offer us a frame of reference that we can use to navigate the future. They can also tell us which parts of our analysis are right and which parts are wrong, and with that in mind, I would like to submit a few thoughts about 2019 and beyond.
The year 2018 has been a rollercoaster of year, not only for the Philippines but also for the rest of the world. A lot of things began to unravel this year, and they are very likely to accelerate in 2019. The most obvious examples include the Gilet Jaunes in France, increasing populism in Europe, America’s growing presence in the energy market, the US pull-out from Syria (and possibly Afghanistan), the escalating Chinese-American Trade War and, my favorite, global demographic imbalances. All of these different trends and events are unraveling the post-War world order.
On a less impressive note, higher interest rates in the US and global market meltdowns in the latter part of 2018 seem to indicate that global finances are in trouble. Add the increasing concern over the Chinese economy, as well as the woes of the Eurozone, and 2019 may not only be a politically troubling year, it may also unleash a lot of problems on the economic front.
Now, what does any of this mean for us here in the Philippines? A lot or a little depending on who you are and your engagement with the greater global system. Do you want to go work in or immigrate to France? You better get used to the tense political situation there and the rest of Europe. But what about America? Bipartisan cohesion is practically dead in Trump’s America, so expect a more politically unstable US.
Are you concerned about oil prices? The geopolitical tension between the US and traditional oil producers should concern you. Are you planning to work in the Middle East? Syria may offer new opportunities, but only if you are prepared to risk the escalating tension in the region, especially the area that separates Yemen from its neighbors. Are you a business man trying to bring in new products? The trade war may hurt or help your margins, depending on how you play your cards.
But these are all minor issues. Looking at the bigger picture, the global structure is continuing to unravel, and the West seems to be in retreat (as indicated by Trump’s pull out from Syria as well as increasing populism all over the Western World). This means that Europe and America will be less involved in global affairs, but they may also be less likely to accept immigrants and outsiders into their own territories.
This situation will create power vacuums in various parts of the world; vacuums which will be filled up by other growing powers, namely Russia and China. However, Western retreat will also most likely deprive large parts of the world with easy access to Western markets and technology, so that the situation looks more like a net loss than a net gain for the rest of the world.
So to summarize my predictions for 2019, expect a world that will look less peaceful and less stable. Paradoxically, though, this is a good thing, as it will allow old and atrophied systems and ideologies to be replaced by new and more dynamic alternatives, and there are many opportunities for the Philippines in this transition period./PN
