THREE years into the President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. presidency, there’s a noticeable pivot in the focus of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) from internal defense to external defense. The AFP now concentrates on external threats to the nation, leaving the responsibility of internal defense to the Philippine National police (PNP).
So, what prompted this paradigm shift? Quite simple really. Love him or hate him, there is no denying that during the watch of former President Rodrigo Duterte, the passage of the Anti-Terrorism Law and the creation of the National Task Force to End Local Communist Armed Conflict (NTF-ELCAC) were the needed missing ingredients to finally end this more than 50 years insurgency nonsense.
As I said previously, what was once 89 active guerilla fronts, the AFP/NTF-ELCAC successfully dismantled 78, reducing their strength to just 11 weakened fronts, and by this time these 11 severely weekend fronts would be nil.
What’s left are the pseudo-communists in Congress and the useful idiots in the University of the Philippines making a lot of noises to give the impression that the insurgency is still active. Actually, they are largely ignored by the people because they’re obsolete and irrelevant.
What seems like a cruel twist of fate, perhaps deliberate, the “pivot to Asia” policy of the United States directly puts the Philippines as the next battleground because the current flashpoint is the South China Sea / West Philippine Sea. Hence, the AFP’s paradigm shift to external threats particularly in the South China Sea/West Philippine Sea.
In the midst of all these one-upmanship between the Philippine and Chinese coastguard vessels in the area, President Maros Jr. addressed this year’s Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore as keynote speaker, which the Philippine government called a “historic” opportunity since he remains one of the loudest voices to protest China’s aggression in the South China Sea.
Here, he condemned maritime aggression in the South China Sea at one of the region’s biggest security forums, without naming China.
“Illegal, coercive, aggressive, and deceptive actions continue to violate our sovereignty, sovereign rights and jurisdictions. Attempts to apply domestic laws/regulations beyond one’s territory and jurisdiction violate international law, exacerbate tensions, and undermine regional peace and security.”
Marcos’ speech came as China continues to disregard Philippines’ territorial claims in the area. China reportedly passed a domestic law to allow its coastguard to detain “trespassers” in its maritime territory, which Marcos deemed as “worrisome.” Despite this, the Philippine president said that resolving maritime differences, especially in the South China Sea, warranted adherence to international law, particularly UNCLOS.
“We must accord due regard to the legitimate interest and respect legally certain rights. We cannot afford any other future for the South China Sea other than the one envisioned by ASEAN.”
China’s actions in recent months – from the use of water cannons to the deliberate ramming of Philippine ships – have been condemned by governments around the world. Recently, Chinese vessels repeatedly hit a Philippine ship with high-pressure water cannons hampering a humanitarian mission to fishermen in the waters of Scarborough Shoal. (Nikkei Asia June 1, 2024)
Meanwhile, just to make things interesting, we have Republic Act No. 10349, the Revised AFP Modernization Act, a law aimed at building a defense system capable of addressing the assessed threats, particularly the South China Sea flashpoint.
This revised AFP modernization program is divided into three horizons. The first from 2013 to 20-17, the second from 2018 to 2022, the third from 2023 to 2028. This has a total projected cost of US$40 billion.
In 2018, President Duterte approved Horizon 2, costing about P300 billion, or US$5.6 billion.
In January 2024, President Marcos approved “Re-Horizon 3” costing US$35 billion over the next decade.
Hopefully, all these for deterrent and not aggression.
Finally, from an article in the 6/17/2024 issue of the Manila Times by Rigoberto Tiglao:
“We and China have a dispute, territorial in the Chinese view, and maritime from our perspective. No international body can rule which country has the legitimate claims. We have to be realistic and accept that the dispute exists, which can only be resolved if we and China negotiate bilaterally for a scheme acceptable to our two peoples.”/PN
