THIS NEW Year, I originally wanted to write about the global economy, namely about how the US is expected to have a recession in 2023, and that China has made a U-turn on its previous self-reliance policy (not a good sign for the People’s Republic of China), but I think the possibility of escalating war in Europe is more important.
Recently, Ukraine has been losing a lot of men, so much so that the Ukrainian army will cease to be an effective fighting force very soon. Yes, there are plenty of videos of Russian tanks being blown up or abandoned, and I think they’re true, but what’s also true is the amount of casualties the Ukrainians have sustained. Ukraine has been exhausting its manpower for the last part of 2022.
The reason why Russia has retreated months ago is that they shifted to a, more defensive strategy, fortifying the lands they’ve taken and baiting the Ukrainians into attacking them. The goal is to bleed the Ukrainian army, and possibly turning Ukraine into a rump state. Russia has done that by exhausting its manpower.
From what I’ve learned, they are now forced to recruit teens and the disabled, something the Russians are being accused of. So at this point, I can only see two scenarios for this to end: Either Ukraine loses or the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) escalates. Putin doesn’t want the latter to happen, but NATO may not accept a Russian victory.
NATO can send Ukraine all the money and aid it can, but it can’t send it men to actually fight… unless they are prepared to start World War 3. Already, there are rumors that Poland and a few Eastern European countries are planning to send men to the front. They’ve already done it in the form of volunteers, but if they double down, that will mean the situation in Ukraine will look less like a proxy conflict, and more like a real war./PN
