AZERBAIJAN and Armenia nearly started a war again. Azebaijanis reportedly occupied Armenian land recently following a brief engagement.
From what I heard, the situation got so bad that the Armenians even called for Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) support, though it turned out that may have not been necessary.
Eventually, the two sides apparently reached a ceasefire. By the time I sent this to my editor, that agreement still stands.
However, a war – even just a border conflict – between these two countries can further escalate the geopolitical tensions in the region, if not the world.
For starters, it could drag in Turkey (a North Atlantic Treaty Organization or NATO member), most of the CSTO, NATO, Israel and other central Asian countries.
It can further cause strains by potentially triggering other conflicts in other parts of the region.
An Azerbaijani-Armenian war would also help NATO by giving Russia a diplomatic problem in its backyard to contend with, distracting it from its fight in Ukraine.
On the other hand, the US and France have officially both pushed for peace, and if the Azerbaijani-Armenian conflict escalates, it could attract the Turks into joining in.
If that were to happen, the rest of NATO may be forced to join in (or risk a precedent where NATO members join potentially large conflicts without NATO approval).
Would NATO suffer that?
If they do, then that would be an excuse to join in the Ukraine conflict, in which case we may as well prepare for World War 3.
The conflict has died down, but I don’t think it has deescalated either. For now, though, it’s just a matter of waiting and seeing. If it blows up again, it’ll affect a lot of important regional players, and potentially change the Russia-Ukraine war into something more complex./PN
