MANILA – The National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) expects 2019’s full-year inflation to settle within the government target of two percent to four percent after hitting a low of 0.8 percent in October, but remains on the lookout for upside risks, particularly cases of African swine fever (ASF).
The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) reported on Tuesday that the country’s headline inflation last month, the slowest rate in more than three years, was due mainly to lower food prices, including rice. It brought the year-to-date inflation to 2.6 percent.
Inflation in September was higher at 0.9 percent and in October 2018 at 6.7 percent.
NEDA officer-in-charge (OIC), undersecretary for Regional Development Adoracion Navarro, said that although the government welcomed the easing of inflation, the country must watch out for upside risks, such as cases of ASF.
Navarro said ASF cases have been observed in Rizal, Pangasinan, Bulacan, Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, Cavite, and Quezon City.
“The livestock industry in the said ASF-stricken areas, which accounts for 21.7 percent of the country’s total hog production, last year, remains at high risk. The government and private companies must collaborate to manage, contain and control the spread of the disease,” she said in a statement.
Navarro said meat processing plants need to be more stringent; stricter biosecurity measures must be enforced; and quarantine checkpoints and disinfection facilities must be expanded and placed in key gateways, such as seaports, airports and expressways.
National Statistician and Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) chief Claire Dennis Mapa attributed the downtrend in October inflation mainly to the annual drop in the index of the heavily-weighted food and non-alcoholic beverages, including rice; transport, particularly petroleum and fuels for personal transport equipment; and housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels.
“Rice is still negative at 9.7 percent and this is the sixth month wherein we have negative inflation (for rice),” Mapa said in a press briefing.
The indices of rice dropped to -8.9 percent in September.
Socioeconomic Planning secretary Ernesto Pernia earlier said they expect the rice tariffication law to help bring down overall inflation in the near term as it “continues to help improve rice stock inventory of the country.”
Mapa further said annual increases were higher in the indices of alcoholic beverages and tobacco; and clothing and footwear in October.
In the National Capital Region, inflation, however, was higher at 1.3 percent in October from 0.9 percent the previous month, with faster annual increases noted in meat, specifically chicken, fruits, and vegetables.
Inflation in areas outside the National Capital Region decelerated further to 0.7 percent from 0.9 percent.
Mapa said the highest annual growth of 2.3 percent was observed in Central Luzon, mainly due to higher annual rate observed in the index of food and non-alcoholic beverages, specifically meat, such as chicken, beef, fish, and egg.
“Our data, we also tracked the weekly prices, you are aware of this and we are seeing an upward trend, particularly in the prices of chicken. So for meat overall, last month was 2.4 percent and this month it’s 2.7 percent. So it’s like a shift (in consumption pattern) and we are seeing that it will continue because initial data in November is still showing upward prices, particularly chicken,” he said.
Mapa further noted that PSA data also indicate that the price of beef has been increasing, while that of pork has been declining. (PNA)
