I RECENTLY looked up the Philippines’ fertility rate.
According to Google’s Summarizer, in 2023 it has fallen to 2.454 births per woman, a one percent decline from last year. This means that we are at sub-replacement levels, a trend that had begun in 2021 at 2.479.
A sustainable sub-replacement rate is 2.5 children or higher per woman. Less than that and we have a shrinking population.
I had known that we would reach this point once we reach the 2020s, but I still find the idea that the Philippines is aging disturbing.
All the trends were pointing to it, and this is a global trend that has been going on decades earlier. It began with the developed countries and now, developing nations are catching up.
For a country to reach sub-replacement level is essentially like reaching middle age. Our best years are behind. We can’t keep growing forever. The question is how we deal with our demographic aging.
Fortunately, we have plenty of time, and we can look to other sub-replacement countries for examples of what works and what does not.
Also, the effects of an aging population take time to manifest. We may be shrinking but we still have a healthy labor pool. For now, we have our demographic dividend to look forward to.
We should use that time to prepare our society for when we become an aging country, and there are plenty to prepare for.
Aging countries have problems with economic growth and social security, for example. Their succeeding generations also need to bear more economic burdens.
Now, at this point, some of you might be thinking we can reverse this. There’s still time. I wouldn’t put much hope in stopping this trend. Other countries have tried pro-natalist policies, and at best, they have only slowed it down.
Sub-replacement fertility is the result of modernity, urbanization and globalization, and we cannot stop those. Only step over them.
Sub-replacement will end eventually, but it’s still a long way away. For now, though, it is a phenomenon that most countries will eventually have to deal with./PN
