SAMMY JULIAN
(Continued from July 17, 2014 issue)
“OTHER regional states probably cannot come close to matching the raw scale of Beijing’s ambitious construction, yet they — particularly the Philippines or Vietnam — will surely find ways to protect their claims more creatively,” Dr. Andrew S. Erickson wrote. “None of this suggests a forecast of calm seas around the Spratly archipelago.”
Erickson, however, pointed out that it is unfair to single out China, which lay claim to almost the entire 820,000-square kilometer area of the South China Sea, as sole country undertaking reclamation activities in the disputed archipelago containing more than 550 islands, sandbanks, reefs, and shoals, many of which are also partially or fully claimed by Brunei, Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam.
He said Vietnam for instance has built a harbor and other land features since taking Southwest Cay from the Philippines in 1975. In total, it has occupied 29 islands and reefs in the South China Sea.
Also, Erickson pointed out that Malaysia’s Naval Station Lima on Swallow Reef is the result of substantial reclamation efforts after Kuala Lumpur’s occupation of the atoll in 1983.
In 2008, Taiwan completed an airstrip on Taiping Island, the largest in the Spratly group, which Taipei occupied in 1955 and on which it already had an extensive navy garrison and radar station.
Even the Philippines, which occupies at least 10 structures in the West Philippine Sea, is planning to build an airport and pier on Pag-asa Island, he said.
Still, Erickson stressed that Beijing is undoubtedly “the only claimant whose economic prowess can support projects that, without violence, significantly alter the status quo in the region.”
“Admittedly, it is difficult to find credible data on whether other contenders have dredged or pursued similar island-building tactics,” he said. “Nonetheless, given their considerably lower capabilities for such work, it is unlikely that any other county has, or will engage in, sand pouring on par with China’s current construction efforts.”
Erickson cited as an example the reports that China may invest over $5 billion in over 10 years on reclamation in Johnson South Reef as compared to the Philippines’ 2014 military budget which is less than $2 billion.
On the other hand, China’s German-built Tianjing Hao dredger, the largest of its type in Asia and China’s “primary weapon in island-building,” is worth approximately $130 million to build. The amount is nearly three-fourths of the per-unit cost that Vietnam paid for some of its Russian-built Gepard-class frigates, its most advanced warship.
Taking all these into consideration, Erickson, who has been an associate in research at Harvard University’s John King Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies, said the international community should “undertake a technologically informed study” of land features in South China Sea.
This will allow other countries to “better understand which claimants are capable of undertaking major reclamation projects on the disputed islands; which have done so, or are doing so; how difficult and expensive such buildup is; and how durable the artificial islands are likely to be in this typhoon-prone region.”
He explained that addressing these questions will help concerned countries in the region and abroad gain a better understanding of China’s “sandbox” strategy in the South China Sea, as well as how the neighborhood is likely to react.
“If Beijing even partially enhances its presence and the momentum of its claims,” said Erickson, “it could undermine the otherwise potentially moderating influence of existing norms and international agreements such as the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Seas.”/PN
