SAMMY JULIAN
THIS was how one expert described China’s regional diplomacy.
At the same time, Chinese goals of maintaining stability and protecting maritime rights and interests (weiquan) are contradictory.
Phillip Saunders, director of the National Defense University’s Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs, asked: How can China hope to maintain regional stability when it is aggressively strengthening its claims to territory claimed by its neighbors?
Well, Saunders said to achieve the two, Beijing carefully differentiates between claimants and non-claimants, and distinguishes more assertive South China Sea claimants such as Vietnam and the Philippines from others such as Malaysia and Brunei to divide potential opposition and prevent collective responses to Chinese actions.
He said China perceives and portrays its actions as defensive responses to actions by others that challenge China’s “indisputable” sovereignty.
Framing issues this way, Saunders explained, produces domestic incentives for tough responses and allows China to claim that its actions are reactive and defensive.
Of course, China’s tactics will not be complete if it has no one to blame for the challenges in the region (It would be crazy if it blames itself).
In the South China Sea issue, China often points an accusing finger at the United States’ “rebalance to Asia.”
However, the rebalance was announced in November 2011, and China’s more assertive approach to maritime disputes actually predates by several years.
Well, managing the tensions between competing Chinese goals requires agile diplomacy and effective control of military and paramilitary forces.
However, China’s nationalistic policy environment and mixed crisis management record does not inspire much confidence in Beijing’s juggling ability.
The bottom line: If there is anyone to blame, it is China, which continues aggressive efforts to expand control over disputed territories.
If this does not stop, it will risk further damaging relations with its neighbors and risk destabilizing the regional security environment./PN
