RUMORS coming out of China indicate that their population had peaked in 2021, and that can have tremendous geopolitical effects all over the world.
I don’t have the numbers, but even if the rumors aren’t true China is projected to grow old before the century is done. It’s just a question of when.
The original projections for China’s population is that it will half itself by 2100.
A growing economy requires a lot of young people, specifically smart, young and healthy people. You need them to buy houses, cars, vacations, groceries and services. You also need them to work.
Further, young people are necessary to join the military. War and policing are jobs meant for the young.
And the same is true for manufacturing jobs and labor-intensive sectors. These are not things that a country with an overwhelming number of seniors can do.
Now, to be clear, I don’t think that having a rapidly declining population will destroy China. However, I do think that it will prevent it from becoming the next big superpower. At best, I think the People’s Republic of China will become the regional power in East Asia in a multipolar world system. It will be like what Japan is now – old but relatively secure.
But if China’s demographic situation is getting old, I could say the same for most of the developed world. Most of Europe is aging, as is the case with Singapore, Japan and South Korea. America may seem like it has a growing population, but that growth is driven by migration, migration that is causing stress to its society.
Even Russia is lagging in population replacement. And if what we know about demographic trends comes true, the developing world (like the Philippines) will follow a similar trajectory in the decades to come.
China is already in that trajectory, which is why I think the future will be grey, old and tired for it and many other countries./PN
