IN THE PAST, I’ve written about the effects of a declining global population on world economics, particularly consumption. This week, I’m going to give my opinion on its effect on politics and human civilization.
Some 500 years ago, the global human population was around 400 to 500 million. Compare that today with the population of around 7.8 billion. By 2100, this figure is (doubtfully) expected to reach 10 to 11 billion.
But wait, it doesn’t stop there. Annual growth rate of global population peaked in the 1960s at 2.1% and has been in free-fall ever since then. In 2019, annual population growth for the planet fell to 1.08% and is projected to fall even further. So even though the population continues to grow, its growth is well past its zenith.
That is why the 10 to 11 billion projection in 2100 is extremely optimistic. Add the fact to the possibility of war, famine, pandemics, environmental destruction and economic problems, and this projection falls apart.
So what does this mean?
It means the end of modernity as we know it, and a return to more traditional socio-political modes of being. The growth in human population is what is allowed for the creation of markets, trade routes, industries and many modern phenomena that we take for granted today. Capitalism and, to a certain extent, most leftwing ideologies, wouldn’t exist in small predominantly static populations. Big tech, high finance, mass media and modern society as we know them, cannot prosper in a world where human population growth is in decline, because they require a critical mass of (fairly intelligent and functional) populations to sustain them.
More importantly, however, the trend towards a population recession opens up new civilizational possibilities. Population growth was a byproduct of Western Civilization. It was the Europeans who created industrial agriculture and modern medicine and capitalism which allowed human population to expand in the last few centuries.
As the global population growth declines, Western institution and civilization will retreat as well, and with them, human rights, liberalism, gender equality, etc…
Eventually, the global population will, at some later time, diminish and reach a new balance. But what that world has to offer, we can only imagine./PN
