MANILA – The government’s economic cluster has revised upward its inflation forecasts for both 2018 and 2019, citing higher crude prices in global markets.
The government now expects inflation to accelerate by 4.8 to 5.2 percent on average this year, Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) chair and Budget secretary Benjamin Diokno said in a press conference in Manila City.
Earlier, the DBCC pegged inflation at 4.0 to 4.5 percent this year and 2.0 to 4.0 percent for 2019.
“Inflation forecasts for this year and next year have been adjusted upwards to 4.8 to 5.2 percent and 3.0 to 4.0 percent, respectively,” said Diokno.
“Meanwhile, the inflation forecasts from 2020 to 2022 have been retained at 2.0 to 4.0 percent. This is consistent with the government’s assessment that inflation will go back to the target level by next year,” he said.
Revisions regarding the country’s macroeconomic conditions reflect global and domestic developments.
“We have also revised the government’s medium-term macroeconomic assumptions for 2018 to 2022 to reflect developments at the national and global level, including higher world oil prices, tightening of monetary policy in advanced economies, and higher domestic inflation,” said Diokno.
The DBCC now expects Dubai crude oil to average between $70 and $75 per barrel this year.
“If you look at the increase from one month to the next… in all likelihood, at the latest, (inflation) peaked already by this month and start going down starting November,” Monetary Board member Felipe Medalla said regarding inflation.
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas earlier set an inflation target of 2 to 4 percent this year. (GMA News)
