REGARDLESS of who succeeds President Rodrigo Duterte on Election Day, he or she will be facing a world much different from 2016.
For starters, the coronavirus is a largely global phenomenon and the new administration will be at its mercy just like other governments all over the world.
This particular issue will force the new President to hit the ground running. The upside is that once the pandemic subsides, he or she will most likely get a boost in public approval from a plague-weary populace.
On the economic front, both China and the US are facing weakening economies, and stagflation seems to be expected in the coming years. In this situation, the Philippines will not be spared from the effects of this, as the global market grapples with stagflation and its costs.
Trade and exports may be damaged, and we are already seeing some of its effects in the US Federal Reserve’s somewhat hawkish posture.
On the plus side, the Philippines’ demographics remain healthy and some offshoring companies are looking to Southeast Asia as alternatives to China. For employment, there is the growing internet based gig economy, something the Philippines’ young workforce is suited for, particularly those that want alternatives to call centers.
Politically, I think we are headed to the breakup of the globalized world prior to Duterte rise to power. Donald Trump’s nationalist support never went away in the US and Europe is only growing in nationalism, with the rise of Eric Zemmour and other populists. The Western World were always the pillars of globalization and without them, the system is left empty.
China was once thought to take up the baton, but its actions in the past few years seem to point to a major no.
And that’s the world the new administration will face. I don’t think it will have any major effects on domestic affairs (at least not in the immediate future), but expect the new President to face more interesting times./PN
