ASIDE from the Ukrainians, another big loser of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is Germany.
Germany relies on Russian energy exports to fuel its industries, and without that fuel it faces economic problems.
Consider the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. According to a Forsa study, 3/4 of Germans supported it, and saw it as being positive for their country. So when the pipeline was sabotaged last year, it was a big deal for the country.
As the Ukrainian-Russian conflict enters a new stage, Germany is faced with a difficult choice. Stick with NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) and the EU (European Union) and suffer further economic problems, or engage in rapprochement with the Russians at the expense of European/NATO solidarity.
I think this will be the defining issue in their next election, and will have far-reaching implications not only for Europe but also for the future of NATO and the EU.
In a scenario where Germany does break rank and reconcile with Russia, not only will Russian power increase, even on a symbolic level, it will also make Germany a potential enemy of the Anglosphere, or at least a problematic ally for NATO.
Further, if Germany tries to play nice with the Russians, it’s likely that other European countries will join in. Italy, for example, might join the Germans as well as the Hungarians. And if that happens, I think the EU will be weakened at best, or rendered defunct at worst.
America will not take this lying down, naturally, so I wouldn’t be surprised by a future scenario where the US and certain parts of Europe are at odds with each other. There have been signs of this happening last year in regards to Nord Stream 2.
How things will turn out will depend on how far the Germans are willing to pursue their own interests./PN
