SHORT answer: Some experts believe the vaccine should be ready between the last few months of 2020 and the early half of 2021.
That’s great, right? Well, it’s more complicated than that.
First, let’s examine the testing process. Vaccine testing proceeds in three processes. Phase 1 is where scientists test the vaccine so that it doesn’t make people ill, while Phase2 involves making sure that the vaccine is actually effective. It also involves making sure that the vaccine will not be broken down by the body before it does what it’s meant to do.
Given the situation with the coronavirus, I hear that most research groups are combining Phase 1 and 2 to accelerate their time table. And considering how vaccine research takes years to accomplish, researchers have done a fantastic job on pushing the time table.
Next, comes Phase 3, and this gets a little complicated. Basically, it involves injecting hundreds of test subjects and releasing them into the public. This is the part where researchers observe how the vaccine works in the real world.
If the vaccine works (and that’s a big if), manufacturing begins. The big issue is where and when.
If the vaccine is manufactured in the US, for example, most of that initial set will be set aside for New York and other American areas with high COVID cases. Manufacturing will increase in response to demand but it will take time. By the time, they will have vaccines available for the Philippines, months would have passed. The same is true for other countries.
Next, we have to think about supply and logistics. This isn’t as simple as bringing the vaccine from Point A to Point B. Priorities have to be considered. Do you think China or Russia or the US will send over vaccines to the Philippines as soon as they have finished it?
And assuming we get some, we won’t have enough for everybody. So even if the vaccine becomes available in the next few months, for many people it may as well be non-existent until supplies and logistic meet global demand.
In short, the corona vaccine will probably be shipped out to the Philippines some time during the latter half of 2021; perhaps earlier if we’re lucky; 2022 if we’re not.
However, I do expect the prototype to be ready this year. This won’t help COVID patients but it will allow the country and the world to start recovering./PN
