A FEW Filipinos may be wondering when the tensions in the West Philippine Sea will end? After all, there was a time when the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has not been belligerent, and some may want a return to that, judging from their tone.
I would think asking about the “when” is the wrong way of thinking about the issue. Rather, we should be thinking about “how” it will deescalate. In this short essay, I will tackle some of the scenarios as it relates to China.
The first scenario is a limited conflict where the PRC is forced to reevaluate its options. This may involve a limited naval engagement or a couple of jets shot down. Depending on the outcome, the PRC may reconsider its tactics in our region.
Of course, this is all based on the assumption that nobody wants to escalate, and the issue does not turn into a hotter war.
The second scenario is that Xi Jin Ping and his faction are removed from power by a different faction in the Chinese Communist Party. If that were to happen, we might see a normalization of the situation in the region.
But this scenario depends on the political and economic situation in China, as well as Xi’s own health and the cohesion of his faction. A new ruling faction may deescalate the situation in the region, and bring us back to a more normalized relationship, but it can also lead to more escalation. It all depends on who replaces Xi.
A third scenario is that the economic situation in China becomes so unstable that it is forced to turn inward to prevent the situation from getting worse. The economic problems are not that serious yet but it can quickly get worse if the CCP doesn’t change their policies.
Bad economics leads to unstable society. An unstable society may lead to a less externally aggressive China.
So far, these scenarios are unlikely, even if I think they’re the most realistic. However, all tensions eventually end, one way or another./PN
