ILOILO City – Whether she seeks re-election as congresswoman or decides to run for mayor, House Deputy Majority Leader and Iloilo City Rep. Julienne “Jam-Jam” L. Baronda is poised to defeat her opponents, according to the latest survey by Random Access Consultants, Inc. (RACI).
Baronda holds a commanding lead of 57.3% over Mayor Jerry Treñas, who garnered only 42.5%, indicating that she is on track to secure her final term as congresswoman.
Despite aggressive attacks against her on the ground and in the media, Baronda maintains a strong 14.8% lead, demonstrating her solid voter base.
RACI’s September 27-29, 2024 multi-stage probability sampling survey of 600 respondents revealed that 6 out of 10 voters would choose Baronda for congresswoman.
Baronda is also expected to decisively defeat Raisa Treñas-Chu if the latter challenges her for the city’s lone congressional seat.
Baronda leads with 62%, while Chu trails at 37.8%, despite Chu’s months of intensive campaigning. This 24.2% lead shows that the Ilonggos prefer Baronda to continue serving as their representative in Congress.
Should Baronda and Chu compete for the mayoral post, Baronda is projected to win with 55% of the Ilonggo vote, compared to Chu’s 44.5%, a margin of 10.5%.
Chu is also predicted to lose to former Mayor Jed Patrick Mabilog, who is statistically tied with her in the mayoral race. This despite the fact that former Mayor Mabilog has not yet declared that he is running for Mayor.
Mabilog, who returned from self-exile on September 10, 2024, already garnered 48.8% against Raisa’s 50.5% around two weeks after coming home. Chu had been campaigning and visiting barangays since before March 2024 when her father severed political ties with Baronda. They are statistically tied as the survey has a -+4% margin of error.
“We can conclude that the Baronda-Mabilog tandem is extremely difficult to beat, given that the Treñas camp has mobilized all its resources already since March, when the elder Treñas unilaterally dumped Baronda from their alliance,” a political analyst said.
“The scores of the Treñases have peaked already while that of Baronda and Mabilog could still go up. The numbers clearly show Baronda and Mabilog gaining momentum against the supposedly entrenched Treñas camp. If we look at the numbers, we can say that the Treñas kingdom is crumbling down,” the analyst added.
Mabilog’s return led to a 16.3% surge in his support compared to his June 21-23, 2024 score of 32.5%, when Chu held 65%. In the latest survey, Chu lost 14.5% of her support, with most of those voters shifting to Mabilog.
Meanwhile, Baronda saw a 4.6% increase in support, while Mayor Treñas lost 4.5% from his June score of 47%, with Baronda previously securing 52.7%.
The Baronda-Mabilog tandem is expected to file their Certificates of Candidacy on Tuesday, alongside a complete slate of candidates for Vice Mayor and City Councilors.
Their slate includes a mix of new faces with strong advocacy, leadership, and management experience, as well as returning figures with unblemished records in public service./PN
