ONE OF THE biggest symptoms of the divided state of the Trump administration is the schizophrenic condition of American foreign policy. Both the populist Left and the populist Right support non-intervention, and American withdrawal from the Middle East. The American Beltway establishment, however, sees things differently and would remain in the Middle East for various vague pretexts, like defeating ISIS (which was largely defeated by the Russians and the Syrian army) or fighting Islamic Extremism.
Large sections of the American electorate do not consider such pretexts relevant to American interests however, which is why they have elected guys like Trump and Obama based on the assumption that they will end or at least minimize American interventionism abroad. Former US President Barack Obama failed to do this, and now Trump is attempting to do what his predecessor has failed to achieve.
Last year, Trump had announced that American forces will pull out of Syria and perhaps, later Afghanistan. As soon as he made this decision, the American media and mainstream establishment mobilized their resources to counter him, pointing out that an American withdrawal will harm Israel’s interests and reinvigorate ISIS in the region.
American populists, like Tucker Carlson, shot back by saying that interventionism is not in American interests and that President Trump should push on with his agenda. Now, one year since Trump announced his plan to withdraw US presence from Syria, members of his own government, namely Senator Lindsey Graham, Senator Mitt Romny and National Security Adviser John Bolton have made statements which seem to contradict Trump’s earlier statements.
Such contradicting statements put the issue of American Middle Eastern foreign policy in question. Will Trump be able to follow through on his promise to pull out of Syria, or will opposition factions within his own Administration force him to back down? Make no mistake. The situation has become a zero sum game. For Trump, backing down on Syria now will weaken his popularity among his supporters, which in turn may harm his chances of winning the 2020 election.
However, if Trump does push through with his agenda to leave Syria (and perhaps Afghanistan) then Iran, Russia, the Assad regime and their allies will be able to consolidate their power in the region and prevent future American intervention. In other words, if Trump pulls out of Syria then the neoconservative project to remake the Middle East will be irreparably damaged. There would be no going back from a pullout. Russia and Syria will fortify their territories, and no amount of terrorist attacks will change that.
Those who wish to stay in Syria say that they only want to protect the Kurds and the Syrians, but that is just the pretext. America’s presence in the Middle East (and other parts of the world for that matter) is all about maintaining Pax America, and America Firsters and Trump supporters don’t want to subsidize the empire.
Therefore, the divide between Trump and the rest of the American foreign policy establishment is the divide between the supporters of American Nationalism and the supporters of the American Empire. (jdr456@gmail.com/PN)
