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[av_heading heading=’INTERNATIONAL IL0NGGO | The real threat of North Korea’ tag=’h3′ style=’blockquote modern-quote’ size=” subheading_active=’subheading_below’ subheading_size=’15’ padding=’10’ color=” custom_font=”]
BY JED JALECO DEL ROSARIO
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Sunday, May 7, 2017
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THERE has been a lot of news about North Korea lately, and most of it has to do with the ongoing confrontation with the United States. Needless to say, any conflict that erupts in that part of the world will drag in all of the major regional players, namely the People’s Republic of China, the United States, South Korean, Japan and maybe even Russia.
However, the real problem with the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) goes beyond simple saber-rattling. Yes, North Korea’s weapons program is a major threat, but that is just the starting point of the problem. It’s possible for things to become a lot worse if the situation does not deescalate.
To understand what’s truly at stake here, it’s important to keep in mind that both the South Koreans and the Japanese are capable of building and deploying their own nuclear arsenal. They have the technology as well as the economic power to do this. The only reason they won’t arm themselves with nukes is because they are under the United States’ Nuclear Umbrella, and are confident that any threat to their countries will be met by American force of arms.
Furthermore, neither China nor the US want Japan or South Korea to start developing nuclear armaments because such a scenario will endanger both their interests as well as their power in the region.
However, this situation can only continue if the South Koreans and Japanese feel safe. If either of these countries suddenly feel that the United States cannot protect them from North Korea (or even China itself) then they will start developing their own nuclear weapons, and they can do it in a relatively short time.
This scenario will not only destabilize the region, it may even spark a new nuclear arms race, in which case, everybody in North East Asia will have nukes pointed at each other. At this point, it is almost certain that Japan will remilitarize while South Korea will try to increase its own capabilities. As for the United States, its influence in the region will weaken, while China will be exposed to two new nuclear players in its backyard, which is definitely bad for it.
If things get worse, the nuclear arms race may even spread all the way down here, and cause some of our own neighbors to start playing with the idea that they, too, should have some nuclear weapon prototypes of their own.
None of this is certain, of course. Nothing in geopolitics ever is, but it is important to think about the odds, and the odds are that if North Korea does become a credible threat in Northeast Asia then they could trigger nuclear proliferation in the region.
And that is the real threat posed by North Korea. (jdr456@gmail.com/PN)
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