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BY JED JALECO DEL ROSARIO
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What does Trump presidency mean for the Philippines?
WITH the American General Election drawing near, the world holds its breath to see who will be the next president of the United States. Will it be Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton?
However, this is no ordinary election, and this is because of the polarizing nature of the candidates themselves. In contrast to previous US elections where the candidates held relatively centrist views, Trump and Clinton embody, or are perceived to embody, radically different directions for America: Trump’s civic nationalism and Hillary Clinton’s internationalism.
Now, what do any of these things have to do with Filipinos? Two things primarily: Immigration and Foreign Policy.
First of all, let’s discuss immigration.
In terms of immigration policies, a Clinton presidency will be good for Filipinos who want to go to the United States. The Democratic Party, to which Clinton belongs to, is the pro-immigration party, which is partly due to ideological reasons and partly because their electoral coalition consists of groups who are overwhelmingly pro-immigration. In short, a Clinton presidency may be good for Filipinos who wish to migrate to the US.
In contrast, the Republican party is historically considered the isolationist, anti-immigration party. Moreover, its electoral base overwhelmingly consists of conservative white people who generally want to limit immigration into the United States.
As for Trump himself, his statements about building a wall along the Mexican border (to prevent illegal immigrants from entering the US through the route) and for proposing a ban on immigration from Muslim countries are well-known.
So basically, a Trump presidency will likely mean fewer immigration into the US, and yes, this includes immigration from the Philippines. The lesson here, however, is more important: If President Duterte can tell Americans to get out of the Philippines, then under a Trump presidency Filipinos can be told to get out of the United States, and Trump would be justified to do so.
On the foreign policy realm, it’s worth mentioning that Clinton is agitating for a confrontation with Putin, which in turn also means a confrontation with Iran and China. Additionally, Clinton’s foreign policies are no different from previous American generations in the past few decades, though she will likely escalate these policies judging by her past actions. In short, a Clinton administration will likely mean the preservation of the status quo for America’s foreign policy.
In contrast, Trump’s America First policy will likely mean a scaling back of American presence all over the world. This voluntary weakening of American global influence may seem counterintuitive, but the rationale for this is quite sound.
Trump’s positions is that American foreign policy, particularly American military bases in places like Europe, Japan and South Korea, is expensive for the American people and do not actually serve American domestic interests. From the perspective of American Firsters, the world needs America more than America needs the world, and for the most part, I think that this is true.
Therefore, if Trump is elected, it is likely that anti-American groups all over the world, both on the left and the right, will get their wish. America will pull away, and allow the world to sort out its own problems.
For the Philippines and Asia, this can lead to many perilous possibilities, not the least of which is a scenario where Japan and South Korea begin a nuclear arms race to fill up the void left over by American military presence, and at the same time, deter China. Make no mistake, despite the resentment that people have against the US, it has created Pax Americana. What happens after that ends may not be as pleasant as some think./PN
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