INTERNATIONAL ILONGGO

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[av_heading heading=’A not so simple phone call’ tag=’h3′ style=’blockquote modern-quote’ size=” subheading_active=’subheading_below’ subheading_size=’15’ padding=’10’ color=” custom_font=”]
BY JED JALECO DEL ROSARIO
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RECENTLY, US President-Elect Donald Trump received a phone call from Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen.

A phone call may not sound like a big deal but on the international stage, even small talk among powerful leaders can have important implications on their respective countries’ foreign policies.

In the case of Trump and Tsai, it’s important to remember that it is unspoken tradition for US Presidents not to make any gestures which could be construed as recognizing Taiwanese sovereignty, and these include taking official calls from them, for to do so would be to harm US-Chinese relations, which in turn could lead to escalating tensions in various parts of Asia.

In other words, Trump’s acceptance of Tsai’s call could be interpreted as a giant middle finger to Chinese interests, at least in regards to Taiwan. Furthermore, the fact that Trump did this can also be considered as a sign of unpredictability, which can be both a good thing or a bad thing, depending on how you look at it.

On one hand, unpredictable leaders can chaos on the world stage by creating a situation where other world leaders misinterpret their actions. On the other hand, being unpredictable means that you are one step ahead of everyone else.

The question, therefore, is: Did Trump accept the call from Tsai with full knowledge of the consequences, or was it just a gaffe? Given the amount of publicity on Tsai’s call as well as renewed interest in the PRC-Taiwan equation, I’m inclined to believe the former.

Stronger US-Taiwanese relations can have many interesting international implications. For example, we know that Trump wants to take back manufacturing jobs away from the PRC, and move them back to the US. So it is possible that Trump may use Taiwan as a bargaining chip to achieve that goal.

It is also possible that Trump may use Taiwan to test some aspects of his Asian foreign policy. A third possibility is that Trump is trying to put pressure on China without recruiting some Southeast Asian allies, some of which are rebalancing, or appear to be rebalancing, to the PRC. I could go on and on.

The bottom line here is that if Trump does favor strengthening ties with Taiwan then his administration’s policies will probably mark new and interesting developments for US-PRC relations, and by extension, the rest of Asia.

Taiwan – a rump-state of the original Republic of China – play an important role in US foreign policy, and is a constant sore point for the PRC, which considers it a rebellious province. A strong relationship between Taiwan and the Trump administration could very well put a lot of pressure on the PRC, or even embolden anti-Chinese elements in Asia.

However, as exciting as that phone call may be, we have to remember that it was still only just a phone call. Some people are already saying that this gesture somehow means that Trump will rewrite US foreign policy from the ground up. We don’t know yet. And even if these were to come true, we don’t know what kind of policies they will lead to./PN
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