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[av_heading heading=’The Chinese-Russian-American Equation’ tag=’h3′ style=’blockquote modern-quote’ size=” subheading_active=’subheading_below’ subheading_size=’15’ padding=’10’ color=” custom_font=”]
BY JED JALECO DEL ROSARIO
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Sunday, January 8, 2017
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THE NEW Year is off to an interesting start. After the expulsion of 35 Russian diplomats on the final days of December last year, it seemed that the tensions between US and Russian would persist into the new year.
Based on Russian President Vladimir Putinâs reaction to the whole affair, however, it seems that such wonât be the case. So far, the Russians have not responded to the expulsion of their diplomats, and many political analysts believe this is because they know the whole affair wonât matter after US President-elect Donald Trump (who is Pro-Russian) is inaugurated on Jan. 20.
Trumpâs pro-Russian stance, which sharply contrasts with those of the Washington establishment, has many interesting implications for the world. For starters, if Trump does implement pro or even neutral Russian policies, these may potentially weaken or at least alter the longstanding alliance between Russia and the Peopleâs Republic of China (PRC). Add to this the very likely resurgence of nationalism in Europe, and the Russian-US-China equation will be considerably altered in the near future.
Itâs important to remember that, despite its Eurasian heritage, Russia is ethnically, historically and culturally closer to the Western world than to China. Moreover, China and Russia have had numerous border disputes throughout history, and such conflicts may likely reappear in the foreseeable future.
Itâs also important to remember that Russiaâs close ties with China are the result of expediency and the hostility of increasingly de-legitmized Western liberal governments. It is very likely that if the West transitions from a liberal regime to a nationalist one, Russia will re-establish closer ties with Western nations, and may even join the US and other European countries to form a new military or trading bloc to replace the European Union (EU) and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), assuming the nationalist governments do away with those.
This doesnât mean, though, that Russia will close off ties with China. There is no reason for Russia to move away from most of its existing commitments with the Chinese, but even so, Russia has certain incentives to, letâs say, âdiversifyâ its alliances, and if the EU and US are friendly, why not forge closer ties?
Itâs important to keep in mind that in certain cases international relations can be a zero-sum game. If Russia does strengthen ties with the US and Russia, their new relationship may harm their ties with the PRC.
If this happens, China will most likely respond by exerting more effort in strengthening its regional power, befriending neighbors and forging closer ties with other potential allies. How successful the Chinese will be in this regard is uncertain and subject to various other factors.
With the US taking on more protectionist policies, however, and Chinaâs economic model faltering, it would be interesting to see what sort of strategies the PRC will employ to respond to closer Russian-US relations.
On the other hand, a more nationalist US may adopt more isolationism, which in turn will allow China to exert more power in the Asian region, regardless of its long-term economic prospects.
In short, if Russian-US relations become warmer, we can expect to see a lot of new geopolitical changes in the coming years./PN
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