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BY JED JALECO DEL ROSARIO
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Sunday, January 15, 2017
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LAST November, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said, “Economic globalization, multi-polarization and democratization of international relations have created the necessary conditions for the peaceful development of mankind.”
There is a lot in this statement, but I would like to focus on one particular part of it: Multi-polarization.
What is that word? Well, it’s basically a geopolitical concept that proposes to divide the world into several “poles” of power as opposed to just one, a unipolar world order, such as the one dominated by the US after the fall of the Soviet Union.
Another way to state multi-polarity is that the world has several super powers (whether they be states, like the US or China, or regional alliances, like the European Union (EU) or Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) existing in relative equilibrium, as opposed to just one power ruling over everybody, which is the unipolar world order.
Now, the important question here is: In a multi-polar world order, which sphere of influence does the Philippines fall under?
In my humble opinion, there are four possible scenarios. We could fall under US influence, under Chinese influence, under Asean influence, or we could go full Switzerland (Philippines falls under no sphere of influence). Given these options, I would prefer choices 3 and 4, but let’s go through this one by one.
First of all, there is scenario one. I see American influence fading from the Philippines but not completely. This is partly because of the US itself, which seems to be entering a new phase of ethnic nationalism and isolationism, and partly because of weakening US military power. When this happens, and assuming existing trends continue, Washington’s influence in Southeast Asia will likely fade over time.
However, I also don’t think that Western/US influence will disappear completely. First of all, this is because the Philippines is a semi-Western country culturally, historically and linguistically. When I say semi-Western, I mean that we are a creolized country, more akin to a Latin American nation than a traditionally Asian one; and for better or worse, we have a long history with the US, and that is not very likely to go away in the foreseeable future.
Secondly, the country occupies an important geopolitical position in the Pacific region, and the US must – to some extent – engage with the Philippines if it is to continue maintaining a strong presence in the Pacific region.
Let’s now move on to China. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) would like Southeast Asia to be under its sphere of influence, which will probably happen if it remains strong relative to Asean countries. Asean countries are – at present – relatively weak compared to China.
To better illustrate this fact, the combined Asean Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2015 was around $2.5 trillion. On the other hand, China’s total GDP amounted to around $10 to $11 trillion. In other words, if present trends persist, Asean may fall under Chinese influence, particularly if present discrepancies persist and if outside powers do nothing about it. That’s just a fait accompli.
However, it’s just as possible that the various Southeast Asian countries will be able to form their own economic and geopolitical bloc that’s strong enough to exist independently from China, and if that were the case, the Philippines will likely fall under the Asean pole, which brings us to scenario 3.
There now exists a push among Asean member states to embrace a regional identity, somewhat akin to the EU’s goal of creating a unified European identity. It remains to be seen if this push will succeed, but Asean integration is a step in that direction.
Moreover, it’s also worth adding that despite our comparatively lower GDP, Asean’s economic growth is presently stronger compared to China. The region also has generally good age demographics, and it’s worth remembering that Asean is located in one of the most strategic trading areas of the world. Despite these positive signs, however, Asean has a lot of catching up to do to become a viable “pole.”
Finally, there is what I call the Switzerland option, which although unlikely, is also desirable. It is the option wherein the Philippines becomes strong enough to become neutral to any spheres of influence or pole, including Asean, and become a sort of Switzerland in Asia.
Given our geopolitical situation it is possible to do this. A militarily and economic robust Philippines could potentially “do its own thing” in a multi-polar world order, perhaps with loose but strong ties to an Asean military alliance. However, our poor military and economic power renders this a pipe dream, at least for the moment.
So these are the four scenarios that I see will happen to the country in the event that the world enters a multi-polar world order. Of course, it’s important to point out that these are all just hypothetical scenarios, based on factors I consider pertinent to my analysis. Many new factors and trends could emerge in the years to come, and they in, turn will create new political realities that may or may not point to a multi-polar world.
Maybe multi-polarity will emerge, or maybe it will be something else. We can’t know for certain. What is certain, though, is that we must now begin to think about the country’s changing role in the new geopolitical order./PN
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