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BY JED JALECO DEL ROSARIO
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Sunday, April 23, 2017
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TURKISH President Recep Erdogan’s referendum was a success, and that success heralds a new direction for Turkey and most likely the rest of the Middle East.
Erdogan now has the power he needs to replace Turkey’s parliamentary government with a presidential one, and thus direct more power to the office of the President, which he presently and conveniently occupies.
Although his referendum only won by a very small margin, that hardly matters. Erdogan’s power had been secured when he successfully defeated the 2016 coup attempt against his administration.
For Erdogan and for Turkey, the referendum represents something more than just a few administrative changes: It is the chance for a return to Turkey’s Ottoman past; a past that was both explicitly Islamic and unapologetically imperial in nature.
Some commentators use the term “neo-Ottomanism” to describe this desire to renew the Ottoman empire, but it’s more accurate to say that the Turks are simply ridding themselves of Western influence. Of course, given Turkey’s interests in both Europe and the Middle East, this is easier said than done.
Even now, the EU is looking at Turkey with some trepidation, fearful that Erdogan may exacerbate the immigrant crisis.
In Turkey itself, there is concern among the Kurdish minority, who see the referendum as a threat to their own interests in the country. And of course, there are the regional players, such as Syria, Israel, ISIS, Iran, Saudi Arabia and various others that are now wondering if Erdogan will use his power to expand his power at the expense of their own interests.
If Erdogan is planning to revive elements of the Ottoman legacy then such changes will not happen on their own. They will trigger potentially similar transformations in their neighbors, and perhaps in Europe itself. After all, if Turkey can revive Ottomanism then what’s to stop Middle Eastern countries from embracing their own Islamic legacies, or for Europe to embrace their own pre-modern identities? Don’t forget. The Ottoman has been around for centuries, whereas secular Kemalism is only a little over 100 years old.
Presently, the only force preventing such changes is the United States (and Russia to a certain extent), but given the lack of political consensus in the United States, as well as increasing calls for isolationism among American nationalists, this situation may very well change in the future, in which case, we could see some very interesting scenarios begin to play out./PN
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