ILOILO City – Former city mayor Atty. Jose “Joe III” Espinosa is headed for a thumping victory in the May 2022 elections for the city’s lone congressional district, based on his unassailable lead in the latest independent survey by graduate students of the country’s top universities.
A total of 84.6% of the almost 1,000 respondents from the city’s 180 barangays said they would vote for Espinosa, 6% would re-elect incumbent Rep. Julienne “Jam-jam” Baronda, 2.4% would support Atty. Pascual Espinosa, while 7% were undecided or failed to return the questionnaire.
The survey was done between Feb. 28 and March 11, 2022 using multi-stage cluster sampling at the district level, and proportionate stratified sampling at the barangay level. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 5%, and a 95% level of confidence.
This was the third in a series of surveys by the group of graduate students – both Filipinos and foreigners – from some of the country’s top universities, including Ateneo de Manila University, University of San Carlos and the University of the Philippines in Diliman, as well as the United Nations-linked University of Peace, based in San Jose, Costa Rica.
The students are taking up master’s degrees in political science, sociology and public management. The survey is part of their research case study focusing on current issues and problems in the governance and politics of the Philippines.
In the first survey, conducted in the week of Sept. 27 to Oct. 3, 2021, about 75% of respondents chose Espinosa as their congressman, compared with 15% for Baronda and 10% for Plaridel Nava, who subsequently announced he was running for city councilor. Nava has since thrown his party’s support behind Espinosa’s congressional candidacy.
The second survey was conducted on Oct. 12-16, 2021 and covered some 600 respondents from a cluster sampling of the city’s 180 barangays.
According to the second survey, 82.5% of the city’s voters would pick Espinosa as their next congressman, compared with 8.3% for incumbent Baronda, 2.2% for other candidates, while 7% were undecided.
As in the first two surveys, the main concerns of the respondents in the third poll were jobs, food and financial aid, start-up loans for small and medium-scale enterprises, livelihood and welfare projects for the poor, and the continuity of Espinosa’s Pag-Ulikid Program of bringing public services direct to the barangays.
Transparency also remained a key issue, with 82% of the respondents agreeing that “the Iloilo City congressional representative should be transparent in all his or her official initiatives”.
The researchers cited three likely reasons for Baronda’s falling survey numbers. First is her apparent shifting political loyalties, followed by her reluctance to face her opponents – particularly her non-appearance at Commission on Elections-backed media debates among congressional candidates – and her sketchy campaign platform.
“She doesn’t seem to have a specific political party,” said Burmese graduate student Jugar Pa Hu, one of the survey researchers and a United Nations scholar under a joint program of the Ateneo de Manila University and the University for Peace, based in Costa Rica.
“Voters are confused which political party she belongs to, largely because she’s already manifested turncoatism. New young voters consider this a breach of sacred trust between her and her constituents. No wonder they’re turned off by her,” according to Hu.
This was echoed by one of the respondents, a medical professional from Jaro who is supporting the presidential candidacy of Vice President Leni Robredo while backing Espinosa’s congressional bid.
“Jam-jam doesn’t seem to have loyalty to her political party. She’s not very transparent about her political affiliations. She’s supposed to be with Mayor Jerry P. Treñas in supporting Leni Robredo, but she had been seen with [vice-presidential candidate] Sara Duterte and the people of [presidential bet] Bong-Bong Marcos,” she said.
Rishantly Renganathan, a graduate student from India who is also a UN scholar under the Ateneo de Manila and University of Peace program, further explained: “We think Filipino voters are slowly disliking the behavior of so-called political butterflies. It will be interesting to see whether Filipino voters will support or reject these political turncoats. For us researchers, this will be important in our analysis of whether voters are mature enough to support candidates who want to sincerely serve their constituents for social betterment and improved quality of life.”
On the issue of public service, Espinosa scored positive qualitative feedback from most respondents, whose answers are translated here.
“For me, Atty. Joe III is already tested and has proven his capability – he has a legacy of looking after the poor and the lowly,” said a respondent from Barangay Calumpang, Molo.
“Atty. Joe III has already shown his ability as a mayor. He was very accessible and very transparent. He has a strong track record of public service, from when he was a city councilor to when he won as vice mayor and became our mayor,” said a respondent from the City Proper district.
A former street vendor from La Paz said she was dismayed by Baronda’s apparent lack of concern.
“Jam-Jam should have helped us sidewalk vendors resume our small businesses as we slowly emerged from the COVID-19 crisis to help with our daily needs,” she said.
Another researcher, Japanese graduate student and UN scholar Yamasaki Hideyuki, pointed to the need for a clear campaign platform to attract the attention of prospective voters.
“Baronda doesn’t seem to have a clear set of political platform and programs for her congressional district. That seems to be the reason why voters are confused,” he said. “People running for public office should state and explain their platform and plans so that voters will be able to assess how these politicians can serve their constituents.”
As an example, Hideyuki cited the qualitative response from a young voter from Molo who works for a business-process outsourcing (BPO) company.
“Jam-jam doesn’t seem to have a clear plan for the congressional district of Iloilo City, especially for her new term if she ever wins,” said the young voter.
“We have not really seen her in our barangay. She always seemed to be somewhere else,” said another respondent, a housewife from Lapuz.
This sentiment is shared by about 55% of the survey respondents who said they were not satisfied with the performance of Baronda.
Renganathan noted that their latest survey should be taken into account by the congressional candidates as almost 97% of the respondents said they intended to vote in the coming May 2022 elections.
“Hopefully, our research will help local voters in identifying and supporting good politicians. It could also help candidates in their campaign strategies,” said South Korean graduate student Jay Kim, another UN scholar and survey researcher. “Based on the qualitative comments from respondents, voters tend to equate turncoatism or political opportunism with weak leadership, disloyalty and lack of transparency in public service.”/PN
