WE ENTERED the COVID pandemic with certain expectations and assumptions about how the world worked. When it ends, we could see a very different world.
Take the US for example. Despite the coronavirus pandemic, America is facing escalating race riots in its cities, one that is only to going to get worse as the US presidential election draws closer. These riots are partly racial/demographic, partly political, and partly the slow cracking of American society.
If the situation escalates, we may see a semi-breakup of the United States, where the Federal Government loses power, and the US splits semi-officially along Democrat cities and Republican suburbs and rural areas.
In Europe, the Balkans may destabilize the region, and consequently bring in Turkey, Russia and perhaps even China into the region. If that happens, I wouldn’t be surprised if Hungary, Poland and the Czechs would increase their defense budgets (and perhaps look into nuclear weapons).
France is also looking to increase its arms. As the COVID pandemic recedes, we could very well see the return of conflict in that part of the world.
And I could potentially say the same about Japan. Abe’s resignation opens up a giant question mark over the country’s future. Even in Abe’s time, the Japanese were already moving away from its post-war constitution. If a more hawkish prime minister takes over, things will become quite interesting here in the Asian region.
In the Middle East, Israel and Saudi Arabia are cozying up to each other. This is in response to America’s growing period of isolation. In response, Iran is reaching out to the Chinese, setting up new power structures in a Middle East with reduced American presence. This is all happening in the midst of the usual sectarian and demographic problems in the region.
And then there is China’s. The country continues to increase its expansion within the Pacific region, perhaps driven by concern over what the changing geopolitical map might do to its interests.
Make no mistake. The COVID pandemic will end but when it does, we will emerge into a radically different world than what came before./PN
