PRESIDENT Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. begins his administration with the inevitable start of a global recession that will last, at least, all throughout next year.
The recession itself isn’t the problem, however. It is the events that are happening simultaneously that should concern Marcos and his Cabinet.
A recession during a relatively boring time is, for the most part, nothing to worry about. The economy may go down but, if the fundamentals behind it are okay, it will recover over time.
That is not the case today. The world is entering a global recession at a time of food shortages, high inflation, Chinese debt problems, American political stress, war in Europe, and the end of globalization as we know it.
So Marcos is starting his presidency at a time when power and gas are becoming expensive, fertilizer and food supplies from abroad are declining, and when global institutions are facing stress.
And considering how many people already hate him for his family legacy, it’s not hard to imagine what the first few years of his administration will look like.
The best case scenario is that Marcos will be able to weather this storm by adapting to a changing diplomatic and economic landscape. The worst case scenario is that inflation and economic problems will lead to another people power, only this time it will be because of economic problems rather than the death of a political martyr.
For now, though, these are just conjectures. We don’t really know how bad the situation will be once the recession begins, or how the domestic economy reacts.
What is certain, though, is that Marcos faces a difficult first year as President, and not because of any policy mistakes of his own but because we are entering a more chaotic time relative to the last few decades./PN
