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[av_heading heading=’MORE VITAL THAN EVER | Destined for war — US and China? ‘ tag=’h3′ style=’blockquote modern-quote’ size=” subheading_active=’subheading_below’ subheading_size=’15’ padding=’10’ color=” custom_font=”]
BY EDGARDO J. ANGARA
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Friday, July 7, 2017
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THAT’S the provocative title of a new book which surveyed conflicts between the top superpowers — the incumbent and the rising one — across 500 years of history. That situation, according to Harvard Kennedy School Professor, Graham Allison, occurred sixteen times. Twelve broke out in war.
Over the weekend, tensions escalated between two of the world’s strongest countries—the United States and China.
Last Friday, Beijing expressed dismay with Washington’s announcement of a US$1.4-billion arms-trade deal with Taiwan and of unilateral sanctions levied on China’s Bank of Dandong, which the White House accused of laundering North Korea’s money.
Chinese military officials also strongly protested a Freedom of Navigation (FON) patrol conducted by an American guided-missile destroyer within 12 nautical miles of Triton Island, which is part of the disputed Paracel Islands archipelago. Beijing vowed to step up their own air and sea patrols of the area, describing the US’ FON patrol as “a serious political and military provocation.”
These developments appear as an abrupt shift in US-Chinese relations. They were supposedly cordial after President Donald Trump hosted President Xi Jinping in his Mar-A-Lago resort in April.
And one of the main triggers to the sudden shift is China’s reluctance to rein in its treaty-ally North Korea from developing a nuclear intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) that could obliterate Tokyo, Seoul and several continental US cities in an instant.
Relations between the United States and China have grown increasingly competitive over the past decade, with the latter gaining more influence and prominence, and spreading its diplomacy and resources in virtually all the continents.
Over the years, this geopolitical tussle has been played out in several areas. For instance, when the United States — at least under the Obama administration — had pushed for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), China promoted its Belt and Road Programme as the free trade agreement (FTA) of choice. When Beijing pursued its island-building activities in the South China Sea, Washington pushed back and insists that China must adhere to international rules to be a good neighbor.
Allison warns that the US and China could fall into a “Thucydides Trap” — a reference to the Greek historian who documented the Peloponnesian War between Athens (the dominant superpower) and Sparta (the challenger) in the fifth century B.C.
In a 2015 The Atlantic article, Alison wrote that one of the main risks associated with this Thucydides Trap is that “business is usual — not just an unexpected, extraordinary event — can trigger large-scale conflict… When a rising power is threatening to displace a ruling power, standard crises that would otherwise be contained…can initiate a cascade of reactions that, in turn, produce outcomes none of the parties would otherwise have chosen.”
In other words, when it comes to the current conflict between the US and China, both sides need to tread cautiously and need to initiate extraordinary measures to stave off any unwanted armed conflict. The mighty military-industrial complexes of both must realize that a nuclear war between them will render the entire planet into a barren wasteland. (angara.ed@gmail.com| Facebook & Twitter: @edangara)/PN
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