ILOILO City — The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) projects a significant probability of a La Niña occurrence during the last quarter of 2024, with effects possibly extending into early 2025.
According to Engr. Ferdinand Rubin Jr., weather specialist at PAGASA-Iloilo, there is a 66% chance that La Niña will emerge during the October to December period, with a 74% likelihood it will persist through January to March of next year.
Rubin explained that current projections are based on the latest probabilistic forecast by PAGASA, which anticipates the continuation of ENSO-neutral conditions — indicating the absence of both El Niño and La Niña — through the August to October season.
ENSO, or El Niño-Southern Oscillation, involves fluctuating oceanic and atmospheric temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, significantly influencing global weather patterns.
La Niña is characterized by cooler than normal ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, leading to increased rainfall and a higher incidence of tropical cyclones closer to the Philippines, unlike El Niño which tends to cause drier conditions and remote cyclone formation.
Given the forecast, Rubin stressed the potential for severe weather events such as heavy rains resulting in flash floods and landslides, driven by the combination of La Niña and the southwest monsoon.
He urged the public and farmers to prepare accordingly, noting that two to three typhoons might enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) this September alone, with one to two more expected monthly from October to December.
Although not directly linked with the Department of Agriculture (DA), Rubin recommended that farmers consult their Municipal Agriculture Offices (MAO) to adapt their cropping schedules and plant types in anticipation of the adverse conditions.
He advised shifting to flood-resistant crop varieties to mitigate the impact on harvests and incomes.
PAGASA officials also highlighted that agricultural damage tends to be more severe during La Niña compared to El Niño due to the timing of storms relative to crop maturity stages and the lack of preparation time afforded by the sudden onset of flooding during harvest seasons.
Thelma Cinco, officer-in-charge of PAGASA’s Deputy Administrator for Research and Development, pointed out that historical data confirms increased damage during the wetter conditions of La Niña./PN
