THE CORONAVIRUS may stay with us forever in its mildest form but judging from the government’s response in January and this month, I can safely say the Philippines managed to overcome the worst that the pandemic can inflict on the population.
The government did not panic, kept the economy mostly open and re-calibrated its response to the Omicron threat.
The population as a whole deserves credit for containing the Omicron variant. Filipinos kept their masks on, practiced social distancing in public places and mostly refrained from attending huge gatherings and similar super-spreader events. The discipline is a tacit display of the bayanihan spirit for which Filipinos are known for all over the world.
The Philippines can even now plan a pandemic exit and welcome the new normal because of our declining daily COVID-19 cases and low hospitalization rates. We are opening to foreign tourists, introducing in-person classes and at the same time widening our vaccination coverage.
The Philippines is ready to transition to the new normal with caution as our guiding principle. But the country cannot just yet declare victory against COVID-19, not with what is happening to our neighbors. Japan, Korea, Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia and Thailand — our major trading partners — are experiencing the peak of the Omicron infection and it may take them a few weeks more before they can reduce their COVID-19 cases to manageable levels.
The Philippines, perhaps, is luckier than our neighbors for experiencing the Omicron contagion early in January. The administration of President Rodrigo Duterte reacted positively to the virus strain by protecting both the population and the economy. It opted for granular lockdowns and allowed the economy to function as normal as possible without resorting to strict quarantine measures.
As a result, the Philippines weathered Omicron and contained its spread. Health Secretary Francisco Duque III declared last week that the Philippines has already crossed the crisis stage of the Omicron surge, citing improvements in the two-week growth rate and the average daily attack rate (ADAR) of the strain, as well as the low health-care utilization nationwide.
I can only agree with Secretary Duque based on prevailing health data. COVID-19 cases in the Philippines, per the data of the Department of Health, were down in November to December last year until the emergence of the more virulent Omicron strain. The two-week growth rate of the virus, however, was minus 81 percent as of last week, while the ADAR stood at seven cases per 100,000 — considered low-risk by health experts.
Fitch endorsement
Meanwhile, I am pleased to learn that Fitch Ratings is standing by the country’s economic performance. Fitch still maintained its credit rating of “BBB” for Philippines, which is a notch above the minimum investment grade, and kept a negative outlook instead of a downgrade.
The Philippines has kept the same rating from Fitch throughout the pandemic, despite a wave of rating downgrades for several other countries during the same period. I welcome the Fitch decision — it simply means the Philippine economy is doing okay despite the many challenges posed by COVID-19.
Fitch is keeping its faith in the Philippines. The economic recovery, according to Fitch, “should be supported by a pick-up in vaccination rates (92 percent of 54 million target individuals had been fully vaccinated as of December 2021), falling COVID-19 infection numbers, normalized economic activity — particularly in services — after tight containment measures in 2020 and part of 2021.”
Fitch virtually endorsed the handling of the economy by the Duterte administration. The Fitch report said that the fiscal and monetary policy response, strong infrastructure spending and resilient remittances and exports are boosting the recovery.
As I’ve written in this column before, the next president of the Philippines will be lucky to inherit a well-managed economy despite the odds. Congress, under President Duterte’s term, passed several game-changing economic reforms, namely the amendments to the Foreign Investments Act, Retail Trade Liberalization Act and Public Service Act, which are all designed to further open the economy to foreign investment.
The new administration will implement these economic reform measures, which I expect will contribute to a strong Philippine recovery. Our economic prospects are brightening up everyday — and defeating COVID-19 is just the beginning.
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This piece first came out in Business Mirror on Feb. 22, 2022 under the column “The Entrepreneur.” For comments/feedback e-mail to: mbv.secretariat@gmail.com or visit www.mannyvillar.com.ph./PN
